One, market logic: Is the decline panic or conspiracy?

Yesterday's decline in the second coin (ETH) seems 'overblown', but caution is needed as the main force may be using this opportunity to wash out—although it fell below the EMA20/50/200 moving averages on the daily level, it did not effectively break the key support level. This kind of 'breaking the moving average but holding the support' trend is more likely to create panic and collect chips. Medium to long-term investors can view this as a layout opportunity, while panic sellers should beware of the 'missing the boat risk'.

Two, technical key signal analysis

🔹 Moving average breakdown and support defense

• Moving average breach: The daily level falls below the EMA20/50/200 moving averages, short-term trend weakens, but the key support level marked in the chart has not been lost;

• Defense core: If the daily closing price is below the support level, risk increases; conversely, it remains within a controllable range.

🔹 Dividing line between long and short and reversal signals

• Hourly level: $2280 is the dividing line between long and short:

◦ Stand firm → target $2315 → $2350;

◦ Under pressure → maintain weak fluctuations;

• 4-hour reversal condition: Must break above the high point of the bearish candle indicated by the white arrow (approximately $2300), otherwise all rebounds are considered 'retracements'.

🔹 Multi-cycle target levels

• Hourly level:

◦ Break above $2251 → go long, target $2280 → $2315;

◦ Break below $2243 → continue shorting, target $2220 → $2156;

• 4-hour level:

◦ Break below $2220 → probe down to $2156 → $2112, breakdown may trigger further declines.

Three, trading strategy and risk control

🔹 Right-side trading signals

• Long conditions: Break above $2251 with volume → lightly add to long positions, add more above $2280, stop-loss on breakdown;

• Short-selling conditions: Break below $2243 with volume → continue shorting on the right side, add to the position below $2220, recover stop-loss.

🔹 Operation reminder

1. Validity of support level: As long as the key support level is not broken, view the decline as 'washout', and consider building long positions on dips;

2. Reversal confirmation principle: Do not blindly judge trend reversal before breaking the key bearish candle at the 4-hour level; focus on shorting at rebounds;

3. US stock market correlation: May fluctuate before the US stock market opens, it is recommended to wait for the US stock market opening and then operate based on the trend of risk assets;

4. Medium to long-term opportunities: If the support level holds, after the EMA moving average recovers, the second coin may see a rebound. In the medium to long term, one can gradually build a position on dips.

Four, mindset and discipline

• Short-term traders need to be cautious of the panic emotion caused by 'breaking the moving average', strictly operate according to signals, and not be disturbed by market fluctuations;

• Medium to long-term investors may pay attention to the defense of support levels. If effectively held, the current position may be a 'golden pit';

• Remember: In the cryptocurrency circle, the premise of 'be greedy when others are fearful' is—support has not been broken, signals are clear, rather than blindly bottom-fishing.

Conclusion: Find reversal signals amid breakdown panic

The current trend of the second coin seems weak, but as long as the key support level is not lost, there remains a possibility of reversal. It is important to distinguish between 'washout' and 'real decline': if it breaks support, exit; if it holds support, go long; a breakthrough of a key bearish candle confirms a reversal. Patiently wait for the capital flow after the US stock market opens, and do not lose direction in the fluctuations.