I. Market sentiment and trading mindset
When the market is filled with panic and worries about Bitcoin dropping below $90,000, it is even more important to remain calm—historical experience shows that, apart from extreme events (like 312), BTC rarely drops in a straight line; there will always be rebounds in between. Swing traders are able to seize opportunities precisely because they see the layout window during declines. Remember: panic distorts judgment; objective analysis is the prerequisite for profit.
II. Key signal analysis from a technical perspective
🔹 Fibonacci resistance level game
• Rebound to the Fibonacci 50% level faces resistance and falls back; this level (around $102,000) is the dividing line between bulls and bears:
◦ Break and hold → confirms the end of the decline, targeting the 61.8% level and a 1:1 upward target;
◦ Faces resistance and falls back → may continue the adjustment.
🔹 Candlestick patterns and trend indications
• Doji candlestick pattern: The two doji at the white arrow show a divergence between bulls and bears; breaking the doji high point ($102,057) can relieve the pressure;
• Bullish engulfing protection: The bullish engulfing pattern below has limited short-term downside space unless it is engulfed in reverse, in which case caution is needed for a trend reversal.
🔹 Distribution of bullish and bearish liquidity
• Bullish liquidity: $97,200 has $700 million of funds waiting to be cleared;
• Bearish liquidity: There is $500 million of funds waiting to be cleared near $103,400;
• Key logic: BTC may first attack liquidity-rich zones; pay attention to fund flows after the U.S. stock market opens.
III. Key levels and trading strategies
🔹 Right-side trading signals
• Long Conditions:
1. Volume breakout at $102,057 → initiate long on the right side, target $102,910 → $103,402, stop loss on breakdown;
2. Confirm after pulling back to the Fibonacci 50% level → add to long positions.
• Short Selling Conditions:
1. Volume breaks below $101,359 and the pullback cannot recover → initiate shorts on the right side, target $100,320 → $98,626, stop loss on recovery;
2. 4-hour level breaks below $100,320 → target $97,496, breakdown may clear bullish liquidity at $97,200.
🔹 Multi-period target levels
• Hourly level:
◦ Break above $102,031 → initiate main upward trend, aiming for $102,910 → $103,402 (breaking above $103,400 may liquidate shorts);
• 4-hour level:
◦ $100,320 is the key support; if broken, it will test $98,626 → $97,496, and a breakdown requires caution regarding liquidity liquidation.
IV. Risk control and operational reminders
1. Fibonacci discipline: Whether the 50% level ($102,000) breaks or not determines the short-term direction; before breaking, focus primarily on selling high and buying low;
2. Liquidity warning: $97,200 and $103,400 are key battlegrounds for bulls and bears, breaking through may trigger a liquidation wave, need to closely monitor volume;
3. Correlation with U.S. stocks: After the U.S. stock market opens tonight, BTC may follow the volatility of risk assets; if U.S. stocks fall, watch out for the loss of $100,320;
4. Open interest observation: An increase in open interest over 4 hours indicates intensified bull-bear competition; a breakout accompanied by a surge in open interest is more effective.
Conclusion: Waiting for clear signals in the mixed battle of bulls and bears
BTC is currently at a game node between panic sentiment and technical support, with the Fibonacci 50% level and $102,057 being crucial for short-term outcomes. There is no need to blindly guess the bottom or chase shorts; after breaking through key levels, trade with the trend—remember: real opportunities always appear when emotions are calm and signals are clear.
