🔸Polymarket betting indicates that concern over a significant escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran has decreased. The probability of a second U.S. military attack on Iran before June 30 has dropped from 74% to 54%, suggesting that an imminent attack is less likely. Similarly, the possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil route, has slightly decreased from 52% to 49%. Overall, these trends point to a de-escalation of tensions, with the market expecting both sides to avoid further intensification.
Polymarket is a decentralized platform where people bet real money on the outcome of future real-world events. It operates as a prediction market where users buy "shares" of a possible outcome, and the price of these shares reflects the collective probability that participants assign to that event. By operating on a blockchain, it is transparent and its rules are executed automatically.