Musk's DEX Ambitions on the X Platform: The Triple Game Under the Super App Blueprint

【Super App Ambition: "Financial Socialization" Backed by Visa】

Musk is transforming the X platform into a "Web3 version of WeChat" with a foundation of an average of 568 million monthly active users

Core actions include:

X Money Ecosystem: Integrating digital wallets and peer-to-peer payments, with Visa as the first partner to enable fiat-stablecoin channels

DEX Layout: On-chain reserve of a $5 billion liquidity pool, leveraging the Solana chain to achieve 24,000 transactions per second, supporting direct trading of BTC, ETH, and tokenized assets within the app

Credit Card Launch: Exploring proprietary brand credit/debit cards, planning to launch within 2025, building closed-loop financial scenarios

【Regulatory Hidden Dangers: Licensing Dilemma and Advertising Revenue Crisis】

X's financial ambitions face two major real-world constraints:

Compliance Black Hole: Requires obtaining payment licenses in 43 states in the U.S., anti-money laundering (AML) reviews may limit the range of tokens listed (only supporting mainstream assets like BTC/ETH)

Revenue Crisis: Advertising revenue has plummeted by 45% compared to pre-acquisition (expected $2.3 billion in 2025 vs. $4.1 billion in 2022), with financial services becoming a "lifeline," but initial investments may exacerbate losses

【xAI Acquisition: The 'Hand-in-Hand' Dynamics of Technology and Capital】

In March 2025, xAI fully acquired X at a valuation of $80 billion in stock, which is essentially Musk's strategic maneuver:

Debt Transfer: X's $12 billion debt will be taken on by xAI, optimizing capital structure

Data Synergy: Grok AI deeply integrates X's real-time public opinion, providing intelligent investment advisory and risk assessment services for the DEX, such as developing trading strategies in collaboration with the prediction market Polymarket

Valuation Game: Although X's valuation appears to have "shrunk" by 55%, the user ARPU is expected to leap from 4.1 to 18.3 under the empowerment of AI

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