Do I agree with the ceasefire plan ≠ Do I comply?
The Middle East powder keg has exploded again! Israel targets the heart of Tehran, is a big shock in the crypto market imminent?
The pot of hot oil in the Middle East has splashed out again — the Israeli Defense Minister announced this morning, instructing the military to launch fierce retaliation against Iran for violating the ceasefire, directly aiming at targets in the heart of Tehran.
To put it bluntly, there will be a round of high-intensity airstrikes on the Iranian capital. This is not just an escalation of regional friction, but a super powder keg! As a veteran in the crypto circle, let me emphasize: such events definitely do not just involve closed-door verbal battles, but directly affect the nerves of the global market.
When Israel and Hamas went to war in 2023, Bitcoin plummeted 15% in a single day, Ethereum followed with a crash of 12%, and the total liquidation amount across the network reached 2.4 billion USD. This larger-scale action will definitely drop a nuclear-level shockwave on the already fragile crypto circle.
Why is this event a major negative for the crypto circle?
Personal opinion: This news is vicious, and once geopolitical risks explode, cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, are the first to suffer. First, let's look at the supporting data — historical backtracking shows that when conflicts in the Middle East break out, Bitcoin's average volatility surges by more than 30%.
This morning, Bitcoin has already slightly dipped by 2%. If the situation worsens, we predict that within 24 hours of Tehran being bombed, BTC may see a single-day decline of more than 10% again.
Reason? Iran is one of the hotspots for global blockchain activity, with active on-chain transactions. A large-scale crackdown could paralyze mining farms and exchange nodes, impacting global liquidity chains.
Not to mention the emotional aspect: as panic spreads among traders, those leveraged long must be careful — the risk of liquidation is soaring. Last night, positions with leverage exceeding 10 times had already surpassed 500,000, and a sudden crash could wipe out small accounts. I have always been pessimistic: when the Middle East is in turmoil, the market immediately turns bearish. Don’t hope for a bull market to prolong its life; quickly reduce positions to ensure safety is the way to go.
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