Bitcoin Falls Below $100,000, Is the Rebound an Illusion? My Judgments

1. Short-Term Trend: False Breakdown May Reoccur

Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 early in the morning but quickly rebounded, resembling this year's January 'false breakdown.' However, the current market sentiment and fundamentals are vastly different now, so we should cautiously view the rebound in the short term.

2. Medium to Long-Term Expectation: Mostly Bearish

The current macro environment is weakening, and the likelihood of breaking through the early year's high is low. The author remains mostly bearish in the long term while being optimistic about attempting short positions near $103,000; if it rebounds to $106,000, it will also be an opportunity to short.

3. Altcoins Weaker: Spot Prices Plummeting

Small coins are performing worse, with PEPE dropping to 0.08 and SUI nearly halving. It reminds investors that escaping high positions earlier was key; otherwise, leveraged users face significant losses.

4. Bottom Prediction: May Appear in July-August

Currently, it is still a downward consolidation period, and the true bottom requires time to be confirmed. It is advisable to rationally accumulate at the bottom and gradually allocate positions.