I carefully analyzed the on-chain and exchange data and found that the overall market liquidity is a bit unusually low. In my view, there are only two reasons:
After Bitcoin surged to $110,000, many people felt uneasy and were reluctant to jump in casually; the enthusiasm for buying coins visibly cooled down.
Most small retail investors have basically been washed out, and those still in the market are institutions and large funds battling it out—these 'whales' trade very infrequently, making the market feel like a stagnant pool, unable to move.
But even if the market is so 'dead', Binance still firmly holds the top position.
I compared the spot trading volumes of major exchanges, and in the last 30 days, Binance alone accounted for 30% of the entire market—it’s not an exaggeration to call it a 'behemoth'! Bybit, OKX, and Coinbase combined can't match it. These four have already consumed 63% of the market share—how can small exchanges hope to turn things around? I see it as difficult as ascending to the heavens.
Ironically, after Bybit was hacked in February this year, users fled in fear, and trading volume collapsed instantly. This money then surged into Binance, with OKX and Coinbase also picking up some leftovers.
What does this indicate? When the market gets chaotic, people still trust the 'big brands'—Binance is the 'stabilizing force' in the hearts of most people.
The key point has arrived: The movement of 'ten million-level' funds on Binance is not right.
Since most of the money is piled up in Binance, I specifically monitor those large single transactions exceeding $10 million. Recently, I found that: 'large net outflows' are quickly decreasing! In my view, there are only three possibilities:
The giants who should have cashed out at high positions have long since fled, and now they don't have that many coins left to sell.
The big buyers looking to take over from outside the market are also starting to hesitate, and demand is shrinking.
Whales temporarily do not want to hoard coins anymore, and are watching cautiously.
This pattern in history is almost shockingly accurate:
Last November to December: Crazy large net outflow → followed by a sharp drop in BTC;
This January to February: Net outflow slowly decreased → BTC gradually grinding down;
From March: Net outflow turned into net inflow → BTC weakens in sync, re-exploring the bottom.
And now?
In May, there was still a crazy net outflow, and in June, it suddenly braked, turning into a net inflow by June 21—right after that, the market softened! This script is almost identical to March.
My conclusion
If you ask me how I see the future market? In a word: You must keep a close eye on the flow of these 'ten million-level' funds on Binance! It is almost a synchronous indicator with BTC's market, and big funds not moving out ≠ the market is going to rise; it may instead mean that buying pressure can't hold up, and prices will continue to grind down. In this market, it's better to earn less than to get buried—this data is a signal light for escaping in advance.
Follow me, and I will help you see the essence through the phenomenon, together we will traverse the bull and bear markets.