The United States recently launched targeted strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, escalating geopolitical risks and increasing market risk aversion. Gold surged, crude oil hit new highs, while Bitcoin saw a decline, falling from 105,000 to around 100,000.
Why? Because Bitcoin is both "digital gold" and highly influenced by liquidity. In the short term, an escalation of war may drive Bitcoin to become a safe haven asset and rise; however, if the conflict expands and financial markets experience severe volatility, tightening liquidity combined with market panic could lead to a short-term correction in BTC.
Currently, Bitcoin hovers above 100,000, seemingly strong, but not "set in stone." If the market encounters the following situations, breaking below the 100,000 support is not impossible:
1️⃣ The Federal Reserve strengthens hawkish expectations, capital flows back to dollar-denominated safe haven assets;
2️⃣ Escalation of the conflict leads to a significant decline in traditional markets, prompting investors to sell risk assets for cash;
3️⃣ ETF fund inflows weaken, on-chain activity declines, and the market enters a period of adjustment.
In the medium term, geopolitical turmoil combined with a fiat currency credit crisis will continue to enhance the attractiveness of Bitcoin as a "hard asset." Any sharp decline is more likely to be an opportunity to accumulate rather than a trend reversal.
Short-term attack events may intensify market volatility, but the fundamentals of Bitcoin remain unchanged. Maintain emotional stability and be wary of technical breakdowns; the key support below remains the 100,000 round figure, and if it retraces, attention can be focused on the strong support in the 92,000 to 95,000 range.
📌 Investors need to be cautious of short-term black swans while also recognizing long-term logic: Bitcoin is the "new neutral asset" in times of war and currency crises.