🌞June 23 Market Analysis!!!
Geopolitical risks are escalating, BTC has fallen below a key level. Good morning, everyone! Yesterday, Bitcoin briefly fell below 100,000 USD.
Last week, we already indicated: if it falls below this level, it is a clear medium-term buying signal.
The current trend remains unstable, and it may still test the area below 100,000 USD in the short term.
1. Catalyst for the plunge: Escalating geopolitical conflict
The U.S. military bombed Iran, leading to further escalation of the conflict. The Iranian parliament approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, becoming the core source of market panic.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important oil shipping lanes in the world. Once blocked, the U.S. military may directly intervene, and the conflict could escalate comprehensively, causing a surge in market risk aversion.
2. Will the situation further deteriorate?
The likelihood of closing the strait is low
Although the parliament approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the execution authority remains with the Supreme Leader Khamenei. From Iran's own economic perspective, blocking the strait would mean cutting off its oil exports, which is extremely risky and more likely to be used as a bargaining chip rather than a substantive action.
The probability of a full-scale war is small; it is more likely to move towards peace talks.
The current situation is more likely to develop into a pattern of "limited conflict + diplomatic mediation."
The possible path is: Iran's symbolic retaliation → U.S. side pauses escalation → All parties promote negotiations → Freezing of the nuclear program in exchange for easing sanctions.
3. On-chain data: BTC holdings are still concentrating towards whales
Despite the price correction, the BTC reserves on exchanges have not significantly increased. On-chain data shows that the proportion of whale holdings continues to rise, indicating that the main players are still accumulating at low levels.
Short-term volatility is a shakeout; the essence is turnover.
Once the geopolitical situation eases, BTC is expected to restart its upward trend, even breaking new highs.
