I. In-depth Analysis of Price Trends
The SOL price continues to drop like a free fall, with the latest quote at $133.73, approaching the lower Bollinger Band at $133.61. The Bollinger Band position value is as high as 1.04, far exceeding the normal range, indicating that the price has seriously deviated from the midline, with significant overselling signs, which may trigger a technical rebound at any time.
From the perspective of the moving average system, the current price is 9% lower than the MA200 moving average of $146.97. Although it is still in a long-term bearish dominant situation, the short-term demand for a rebound from overselling is strong. Notably, the current price has dropped 8.7% below the average holding cost of $146.55, with most holders deeply trapped in losses, and subsequent selling pressure is expected to gradually weaken.
II. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
Market trading is exceptionally active, with a 44% surge in 24-hour trading volume, but the price has plummeted by 4.55%, showing a typical high-volume decline trend. However, the RSI indicator has dropped to an extreme overselling area of 21, indicating that the bearish forces may have been exhausted in the short term.
Order book data shows fierce competition between bulls and bears. The buy-sell ratio of 1.61 seems to favor buyers, but there is significant selling pressure in the nearby sell orders, with up to 780,000 USDT of sell orders accumulated in the range of $134.12-$134.68. Fortunately, the $130-$133.4 area has gathered 4.28 million USDT of dense buy orders, forming a strong support bastion.
III. Key Point Defense Battle
Support Level: The buyer liquidity area at $133.4 is the first line of defense for bulls. If it fails, the $130 level with a buy order of 3.3 million USDT will become the last defensive position.
Resistance Level: The dense sell order area at $134.68 will be the first barrier for bulls to counterattack, followed by resistance levels of $137.93 and $142.
IV. Trading Strategy Recommendations
Operational Direction: Given the severe short-term overselling, it is recommended to seize short-term rebound opportunities of 1-3 days.
Entry Timing: Establish long positions relying on buyer liquidity support near $133.4.
Stop Loss Setting: Strictly set the stop loss at $129.5. If it breaks below the key support at $130, it indicates a weakening trend, and decisive actions must be taken to exit.
Target Price: The first target is $137.93. If it can strongly break through $134.68, it is expected to trigger a short covering market.
Risk Control: It is recommended that positions do not exceed 2%, and avoid periods of low liquidity during the Asian session to guard against abnormal volatility.
V. Risk Warning
If the key support at $130 is lost, it may trigger panic selling among bulls, and the price could further drop to $120. Investors must strictly implement stop loss strategies and should not blindly hold positions!
Summary: Although SOL is currently in a bearish downward channel, extreme overselling is combined with strong support levels, providing an opportunity for a short-term rebound. However, market risks remain, and operations should be cautious, with strict control over positions and risks!
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