The war is on and Bitcoin testing the crucial 100k support, | MihaiDaniel on Binance Square

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The war is on and Bitcoin testing the crucial 100k support, before Monday markets could be very volatile and vulnerable! Be careful on altcoins! The deep is not deep enough yet ! 

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Crypto Total Market Cap excluding BTC, ETH and Top 10 (on TradingView it is CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3). If the Cup & Handle pattern on Weekly and Monthly is confirmed and the target reaches $1.99 trillion, from ~$830 trillion now, we are talking about an increase of approximately 2.4x of the entire non-BTC/ETH/Top10 segment. ⸻ ⚙️ Working hypothesis Let's rely on the following simplified distribution of the capital that would enter: • 90% to projects in the TOP 200 • 10% to projects outside the TOP 200 (low caps, shitcoins, etc) ⸻ 🔍 What does it mean for the TOP 200? 1. Total estimated inflow to TOP 200: • 90% of new $1.16 trillion = ~$1.044 trillion • So, the capital in TOP 200 would increase from ~$830 trillion to $1.874 trillion 2. Average capitalization growth for TOP 200: • (1.874B / 830B) = ~2.26x on average ⸻ 📈 Realistic Xs for TOP 200 coins On average, we could see a 2.2x – 2.5x growth from capital infusion alone, but we need to take into account: ⚡ Additional effects: • Positive reflexivity: Growth attracts more attention and retail capital, so it amplifies. • Low-liquidity tokens: Good projects with low circulating supply (e.g. AEVO, RAY, JOE, etc.) can grow 5–10x even if the market average is only 2.5x. • Narrative-based pumps: If a sub-sector (AI, RWAs, L2s, memes, etc.) becomes “hot”, projects in it can generate 10–30x. ⸻ 🔥 Examples of similar bull market behavior: • In 2021, when TOTAL3 grew from 100B to 1,200B (12x), we saw: • SOLANA – 20x • MATIC – 40x • AXS – 100x • FTM, RUNE, SAND, GALA – all made between 10x and 100x ⸻ 🧠 Conclusion • If the Cup & Handle pattern is validated, and TOTAL3 reaches ~$1.99 trillion, it is reasonable to see 2–3x average growth for projects in the TOP 200. • Speculative, undervalued or strong narrative projects can go 5x–20x+, even within the TOP 200. • The distribution will be uneven: coins with hype, utility or “cult following” will capture disproportionately more capital.

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Bitcoin on July 1, 2025 – Macro Context and Differences from the Past • Today, BTC is consolidating in the $106,500–$107,500 area, after a range-bound and low volatility start to the summer. The structure remains bullish on the weekly, but volumes have diminished, and retail sentiment is optimistic, institutional investors are cautious. • If we look at July 1 in the last 5 years: – In 2020, BTC was at ~$9,000, post-Covid recovery and before the major bull run. – In 2021, BTC was seriously correcting to ~$34,000, after the ATH, but a strong bounce to $69,000 followed in November. – In 2022, bear market below $20,000, after the Terra/3AC crash. – In 2023, rally to $30,000, but followed by correction in the summer and bullrun resumption in the fall. – In 2024, pre-halving optimism, over $63,000 and record inflows into spot ETFs. • What’s different macro now: – Bitcoin spot ETFs bring huge liquidity, regulate volatility and give institutional “weight” to the market. – Interest rates and inflation are at levels never seen in a bull cycle; “cheap money” is gone, so every impulse also has macro brakes. – Geopolitics is much more tense (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East), and Bitcoin is increasingly becoming a hedge against instability, not just a tech growth asset. – Regulations are much clearer in Europe (MiCA) and somewhat more permissive in the US (via ETFs). – Distribution is more mature: more holders, more smart money, less retail FOMO than in past cycles. • Conclusion: We are in a new phase – Bitcoin has an intact cyclical pattern, but volatility is institutionally subdued, and the bull run may be more fragmented, not parabolic as in the past. The technical structure still favors a new top in the next 12 months, but patience and risk management matter more than ever.

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Good morning ☕️ Strictly on halving theory and history: •The next 6–9 months should be the “best months for the BTC bull market,” with a high probability of new ATHs, possibly between 126,000–250,000 USD. •After the top, a typical bear market follows (market declines) •Ideal strategy: exit gradually during periods of extreme FOMO, don’t wait for a massive correction to come.

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