I. Analysis of the Reasons for the Market Crash
1. Geopolitical Impact: Escalation in the Middle East Triggers Risk Aversion
Recent reports indicate that a new round of military actions by Israel against Iran has intensified global risk aversion, leading to selling pressure on risk assets. This emotional contagion directly impacts high-risk assets like BTC.
2. Technical Correction: Natural Adjustment After Accumulation in the $BTC 90k–110k Range
Bitcoin experienced a series of technical corrections after failing to break through its highs from 108k to 111k. The Bollinger Bands indicate a drop below the middle band, with trading volume lacking rebound intent, consistent with a “high-level cooling” trend.
3. Suspension of Stablecoin Minting
The issuance and minting process of stablecoins has slowed, passively tightening liquidity inflows and reducing short-term capital supply, weakening the impetus for a secondary rise.
4. Deleveraging and Forced Liquidation Linkage
Over the past 72 hours, liquidations exceeding $500 million occurred, leading to a chain reaction of sell-offs due to long positions being pressured.
II. Structural Logic: The Market Enters a Phase of “Risk Correction + Calm Reevaluation”
Risk Control Prioritized: Bulls have cleared positions after multiple failures to break through, prioritizing risk reduction;
Institutional Caution: While whales have not exited, they are actively reducing their market entry, waiting for stable signals;
Capital Switching: Some stablecoin capital is poised to re-enter after compliance policies are clarified;
Emotional Repair: The market is currently in a 2-3 day emotional adjustment period, and future trends will depend on whether new narratives emerge.
III. Practical Strategy Recommendations
1. Core Positioning with Light BTC + Stablecoin Hedge Structure
Set a core position in the $100k–105k range, “no ambition, much flexibility.” Hold the remaining in stablecoins on standby, gradually exiting as the market and narratives stabilize.
2. Utilize ETH/BTC Price Arbitrage
Currently, ETH is structurally weaker compared to BTC, creating potential for an ETH/BTC rebound. It is recommended to go long on ETH in the 0.0355–0.0365 range, targeting a rebound to 0.038–0.039. Set a stop loss below the structural low.
3. Monitor “Liquidity Signal Fragments” in the DeFi Derivatives Sector
Platforms like Hyperliquid continue to maintain stable trading; consider short-term follow-ups on swings; the logic is “emotional pullback, funds shifting to low-coupling sectors,” beneficial for capturing capital flow deviations.
4. Observe the Overlap of Geopolitical and Policy Windows
If the conflict in the Middle East and Federal Reserve policies stabilize in the short term, the combination of stablecoins + ETFs restarting capital inflows could trigger a new wave of rebounds.