$BTC : Price consolidation ≠ market consolidation, but rather a 'silent allocation period'
Real-time data: BTC has retraced to ~103.8k, the consolidation amplitude has narrowed, but the capital has not flowed out - whale deposits continue, exchange balances are decreasing, indicating that the main forces are quietly accumulating.
🧠 My judgment:
This is a phase of 'quietly building positions' within a 'high valuation price range'.
The price hasn't risen because the main forces are not worried about short-term pullbacks, but are more concerned with structural accumulation.
Constructing a light long position + small range bottom-picking strategy:
Entry: Make low-position layouts below 105k;
Take profit: Before sentiment rekindles, consider locking in a small profit;
The core is 'not breaking structure, not heavily investing' - pushing up to take some positions, pushing down to add positions.
Declining active addresses + weak on-chain data: may continue a period of 'narrow sideways'
On-chain signals: The number of active addresses 14DEMA continues to decline, nearing the previous range's lowest UTXO and new address additions are also weak.
🧠 My interpretation:
Retail investors are still observing, no longer aggressively entering;
The dense decline in activity suggests there is currently no 'new capital education period';
In comparison to prices: you cannot just look at the holding trend, but must consider 'real trading cognition'.
Unless on-chain active users recover, the market may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range. Short-term traders can reduce the frequency, locking in thoughts on the bottom structure range.
$ETH /BTC price comparison clever use: Right-side layout opportunities are emerging
Data indicates that the current ETH/BTC ratio continues to weaken, this is a great opportunity for strategy arbitrage.
🧠 My thought process:
During this period, BTC is strong, ETH is weak;
The breakdown of the ETH structure may indicate 'weaker protocol expectations', not just the coin price;
Layout before bottom confirmation, waiting for cross-period arbitrage or structural rebound.
DeFi derivatives sector: The rise of Hyperliquid is the real signal
Data highlights:
Hyperliquid's transactions this month have reached about $244 billion, accounting for 10% of CEX;
Daily trading volume remains stable at several billion dollars, with TVL at 600M+, indicating real pool funds.
My judgment:
The combination of high-speed, low-friction, leverage freedom, and social copy trading has formed a new capital entry.
Stablecoin market cap reaches new highs, indicating that market funds are becoming more cautious before entering;
Global policies are slightly relaxed, liquidity structure tends towards 'stablecoins + compliant entries'.