$ETH According to Ethereum's current crash-style drop to a 24h low of 2245, (at that time this order was under my observation, the low was at 2230, which deviates from Binance's displayed 2245) -6.62%, and on-chain data, the probability of ETH dropping to 1800 in the short term has risen to 60%. The three main reasons for the crash:
1. Macroeconomic policy suppression:
The Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, and hints that there will only be one rate cut in 2025, leading to a sell-off of risk assets.
- Trump publicly criticizes Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, exacerbating market panic over policy uncertainty.
2. On-chain capital outflow:
Over 2.77 million ETH worth approximately 6.6 billion has flowed out of exchanges in 45 days, reflecting an increased willingness of investors to withdraw.
- Grayscale ETHE trust discount rate has widened to -21%, with redemption pressure forcing secondary market sell-offs.
3. Technical breakdown triggering liquidations:
The price fell below the key support level of 2475, triggering a chain liquidation of leveraged long positions, with the liquidation amount reaching 120 million within 24 hours.
- RSI(6) has dropped to 12.32, the lowest in nearly 3 years, but panic selling has not yet depleted.
Downside risk, if it loses 2200, it will test 1800, the bottom of the bear market in 2023.
Rebound opportunity: large whales bottom fishing, exchange balances decrease by more than 5% in a single day, 4-hour MACD golden cross + increased volume, price stabilizing above 2350 for more than 6 hours.
Current price operation suggestions:
Direction 1: Short on rebound trend, 60% probability, entry condition, price rebounds to 2350~2380 MA5 - 1-hour candlestick shows long upper shadow / evening star
Operation:
- Short entry at 2360 - Target: 2250 → test previous low at 2230 - Stop loss at 2405, position ≤ 5% of total funds, leverage ≤ 8 times
Direction 2: Follow the breakdown short on the right side, 30% probability, trigger signal 15-minute closing price breaks 2230, proportion of long positions in liquidation volume > 70%, Coinglass real-time monitoring.
Operation:
- Short entry at 2225, target 2150 → 2100, 2023 support platform. Stop loss at 2260 above the breakdown point by 1.5%.
Direction 3: Attempt to counter the oversold rebound, 10% probability, necessary condition RSI(6) < 15 + increased volume long lower shadow, if 2230 rebounds with a 100+ decrease in exchange ETH balance in a single day > 3%, and large whales bottom fishing.
Long entry at 2240, 10 points above previous low - Target 2350 → 2420, MA30 retracement, absolute stop loss at 2210!
Kind reminder, manage your positions well, strictly take profits and stop losses! There will still be another wave of market movements, only with funds can there be opportunities!
