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Current market picture (as of June 21, 2025):
BTC is trading below $104,000, breaking an important support level ($105,800–106,500).
ETH has gone below the range $2,500–2,600, opening the way to $2,200–2,300.
Altcoins (SOL, UNI, RESOLV, VIRTUAL) are experiencing mass losses of 5% to 15% in a day.
Indicators such as Open Interest, Funding Rate, and fear/greed show an increase in fear and a possible capitulation peak.
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Scenarios for the coming days:
🟥 1.
Bearish scenario (base case)
— probability: 60%
BTC may test the zone $99,000–101,000 (key liquidity zone).
ETH — $2,180–2,250.
Altcoins may decline another 5–15%, especially those that showed weakness in growth.
Reason: pressure from macroeconomics, profit-taking, and weak liquidity over the weekend.
🟩 2.
Bullish bounce (possible on panic)
— probability: 30%
If BTC holds $102,000+, a technical bounce to $106,000 is possible.
Altcoins will bounce off strong supports (example: UNI $6.28, SOL $135, RESOLV $0.179).
This could be a trap for longs before the final wave of decline.
🟨 3.
Flat/consolidation
— probability: 10%
The market will be stuck in sideways until the end of June.
Activity will decrease, traders will wait for news or statistics from the Fed/USA/ETF.
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What to do?
Don't rush to enter longs until the market shows signs of reversal (volume, formation, confirmation).
Watch BTC: if it loses $101k — a strong correction may begin across the market.
Prepare a list of coins to buy if a 'discount' occurs — this is an opportunity for long-term entry (TON, SOL, ETH, ALT, STRK, etc.).
Implement risk management: do not average down without a signal and do not enter without a plan.
