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1. 📊 Current Size of the US Debt
According to the Treasury Department's Debt to the Penny website, the total public debt (paid by and owed to the government itself) amounted to approximately $36.22 trillion as of June 17, 2025.
Breakdown of Debt:
Public Debt: approximately $28.9 trillion
Internal Debt (between governments): approximately $7.3 trillion
According to usdebtclock, the debt burden per American is approximately $106,482.
2. 🧮 Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Debt is estimated to be approximately 122–123% of GDP.
Exceeding 100% is considered an indicator of long-term fiscal fragility, as economists such as Ray Dalio and Ken Rogoff have warned.
3. 🚀 Growth Rates and Forecasts
The CBO forecasts spending to increase from 23.3% of GDP in 2025 to 26.6% by 2055, although revenues will increase at a slower pace (from 17.1% to 19.3%).
The EY QUEST report warns of declining economic growth ($340 billion in 2035, $1.1 trillion in 2055), millions of job losses, and delayed wages.
4. ⚠️ Risks and Challenges
Interest Cost: Interest paid on debt exceeded $579 billion in 2025, becoming the second largest item after Social Security.
Reduced Private Investment: Higher interest rates reduce companies' appetite for borrowing and investment, leading to reduced future growth.
Loss of Global Confidence: The debt crisis could diminish the role of Treasury bonds as a safe haven, as several economists have pointed out.
Risk of Interest Rate Manipulation: Under "Fiscal Dominance," the government may be forced to print money, leading to inflation and real damage to purchasing power.
5. 🧭 Positions and Statements from International and Financial Parties
Taiwan is concerned about the rapid increase in debt and the decline in investor confidence in US bonds.
BlackRock (Larry Fink) warns that the United States will enter a financial crisis if it does not achieve growth of approximately 3% annually.
Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to Aa1, warning that interest payments could rise to nearly match defence spending.
6. 💡 Political Response and Future Expectations
The "One Big Beautiful Bill," which includes tax cuts and spending increases, could add $2.8 to $5 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.
Senate Republicans are preparing to pass new legislation that would increase the deficit by $2.8 trillion.
Pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, amid fears that the economy will lose out in exchange for rapid refinancing.
7. 🛠️ Possible Reform and Policy Options
Increase tax revenue, especially for the wealthy, or raise the Social Security tax cap.
Cut spending by reviewing programs like Medicaid and SNAP while maintaining essential investments.
Effective budget controls: Enact laws that limit the annual deficit or debt-to-GDP ratio.
Spur economic growth by developing strategic plans to increase productivity and innovation, as BlackRock has called for.
🔍 Conclusion
| The Point | Evaluation |
| 🧾 Current Size | ~$36.2 Trillion, High Ratio of GDP |
| 💰 Potential Damage | Inflation, High Interest, Pressure on Growth |
| 📉 Investor Confidence | At Risk, Especially with Rating Downgrades |
| ⚠️ Are We Facing a Crisis? | It May Not Appear Suddenly, But the Trend Is Unsustainable |
| ✔️ Alternatives | Tax Reform, Spending Control, Debt Rationalization |
Moving toward a sustainable fiscal path requires a combination of spending packages, smart growth stimulus, and strict fiscal controls. Without these, the economy faces two options: gradual deterioration or a sudden financial crisis.
🏦 Which bank or banks are responsible for the national debt?
The Federal Reserve
Became the largest single holder of Treasury debt thanks to quantitative easing policies, with its net holdings swelling from about $1 trillion in 2010 to about $4.7 trillion by February 2025.
It now represents about 13–14% of the public debt, amounting to approximately $4.6–4.8 trillion.
U.S. Government Own Debt (Intrastate Debt)
This debt represents what the Social Security program and other intra-governmental trusts hold, amounting to about $7–7.7 trillion.
Domestic Creditors
Individuals, pension funds, domestic banks, insurance companies, and others account for about 15% of the public debt, amounting to approximately $15 trillion.
Foreign Creditors
Creditors outside the United States hold about $8.2 trillion, representing about 30–34% of the tradable debt.
The most prominent of them are Japan (about 1.09 trillion), China (780 billion) and the United Kingdom (690 billion).