The current Bitcoin market is at the intersection of the "geopolitical risk digestion period" and the "policy dividend brewing period":

In the short term, closely monitor the Middle East situation (the safety status of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant) and on-chain selling pressure signals (daily increase in exchange balances > 10,000 BTC);

In the medium term, pay attention to the sustainability of institutional capital inflows and the pace of global monetary policy shifts, especially the impact of the three consecutive declines in the US dollar index (-0.31%) on the rotation of risk assets;

In terms of operations, it is recommended to buy low and sell high within the range of $102,250 to $104,600, avoiding high leverage chasing prices or panic selling, and moderately allocate short-duration assets to hedge tail risks.