#鲍威尔发言

Powell's tone in this speech can be summarized as 'weak confidence under strong communication'—maintaining inflation expectations through tough wording while leaving policy flexibility for economic deterioration. The core logic lies in:

Avoiding politicization: Clearly rejecting Trump's pressure for rate cuts, defending the independence of the Federal Reserve;

Dynamic game of tariff effects: Binding policy adjustments with the tariff negotiation window from July to September, reducing the risk of decision-making errors;

Guiding market expectations: Through the differentiation of the dot plot (7 members advocating no rate cuts vs. 10 members supporting two rate cuts), suppressing excessive market bets on easing.

The Federal Reserve is currently in a 'tightrope walking' phase, needing to guard against uncontrolled inflation while avoiding a hard landing for the economy. Investors should focus on verifying third-quarter data and geopolitical trends, capturing signals of policy turning points amidst volatility.