#美国国债 Debt exceeds $37 trillion

June 2025 data shows that the total US national debt reached $37 trillion, accelerating from $36 trillion in November 2024, and interest expenses accounted for 25% of fiscal revenue.

Rating downgrade: Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa1 for the first time in 108 years, and all three major rating agencies downgraded US debt to below 3A.

Fiscal Sustainability Crisis

US debt accounts for 123% of GDP, far exceeding the international warning line of 60%. Interest expenditure is 4% of GDP and is expected to rise to 30% in 2034, forming a vicious cycle of "borrowing new to repay old".

Trump's "Big Beautiful Act" plans to cut taxes by another $4 trillion, which may further expand the deficit.

2. Changes in the global holding pattern

Major creditor countries reduce holdings trend

China: Reduced holdings for two consecutive months (reduced by $18.9 billion in March and $8.2 billion in April), with holdings falling to $757.2 billion, a new low since 2009, falling to the third largest creditor.

Japan: Still the largest holder ($1.13 trillion), but cumulative holdings fell by more than $400 billion from 2022 to 2024.

UK: Increased holdings by $28.4 billion to $807.7 billion, jumping to the second largest creditor.

Multiple countries accelerate de-dollarization

Gold alternative: At the end of 2024, gold replaced the euro as the second largest reserve asset in the world (accounting for 20%), and 60% of the gold increase by emerging market central banks was used to replace US debt.