One, Key signal analysis

The main coin experienced a 'two-level reversal' during the day, and the hourly flag pattern box has broken down. If it cannot recover, the downward crisis will continue. The current low of $102,614 has been breached, creating a new recent low, indicating a dominant bearish force. Key focus should be on the recovery status of the flag's lower boundary (now converted to resistance), which is a core indicator for judging the effectiveness of the rebound.

Two, Key price levels and trading strategies

🔹 Right-side trading signal

• Long conditions:

1. A breakout with volume above $103,510 and a stable hourly closing price → enter long on the right side, participate in the rebound, stop-loss on breakout.

2. After a false breakdown at $102,385 and recovery → light position longing, stop-loss at $101,470 or the low of the false breakdown.

• Short conditions:

1. Break below $103,207 with volume and rebound unable to recover → short on the right side, stop-loss on recovery.

2. $104,603 shows a 2B false breakout → light position shorting, stop-loss at breakout of $105,491.

🔹 Multi-period target levels

• Hourly level:

◦ Break above $103,823 → look up to $104,581 → $105,274;

◦ Break below $103,207 → look down to $103,000 → $102,341 → $101,434.

• 4-hour level:

◦ Break below $102,339 and cannot recover → look down to $101,489 → $100,699 (corresponding to stable long entry at $100,698).

Three, Pattern and Trend Analysis

🔹 Flag pattern breakdown risk

• After the flag pattern box breaks down, the original lower boundary ($103,825) turns into strong resistance. If the rebound cannot recover, the downtrend will continue.

• In continuation consolidation patterns, beware that 'going down is easy while going up is hard.' Bullish rebounds need volume support; otherwise, they can be easily suppressed by bears.

🔹 Warning for lower lows

Hourly level breaks previous low of $102,614, forming a 'lower low,' which is characteristic of strong bears. If it cannot recover quickly afterwards, it may trigger further selling pressure.

Four, Operational reminders and risk control

1. Resistance suppression principle: Before breaking the flag's lower boundary ($103,825), prioritize shorting on rebounds; switch to long after the breakout.

2. Volume confirmation core: All breakout/breakdown signals must be accompanied by increased trading volume; low volume fluctuations are prone to false breakouts.

3. Continuation consolidation strategy: In a downtrend continuation pattern, the rebound height is limited; do not blindly chase highs, focus on short-term quick entries and exits.

4. Ultimate Defensive Position: Maintain a robust long position at $100,698 with strict stop-loss. A drop below $99,840 indicates a potential weakening trend, necessitating decisive exit.

Conclusion: Maintain a bearish mindset during breakout conditions

The current trend of BTC shows weakness, with the flag pattern breakdown and lower lows indicating a bearish dominance. Operations should remain cautious, primarily shorting on rebounds, and switch to bullish only after clear recovery signals appear. Remember: in a downtrend, do not guess bottoms or bottom-fish; follow the trend to avoid risks.