– Japan’s 1989 collapse
– The 2008 financial crisis
– U.S.–China power shift
Now he’s warning of a seismic global reset…
1/ The End of Easy Money
• U.S. debt-to-GDP is over 120%
• Interest payments now exceed defense spending
• Central banks can’t cut or print their way out anymore
The post-2008 playbook is dead.
2/ Three Forces Colliding
Dalio warns of a rare and dangerous convergence:
• Exploding debt + constrained policy tools
• Deep internal division
• Rising international conflict
Last time this mix appeared? The 1930s.
3/ Internal Chaos = Market Whiplash
America is fragmenting from within:
• Polarization is nearing civil-war levels
• 2024 saw legal battles in over 35 state elections
• Trust in institutions is collapsing
Markets hate uncertainty.
4/The Geopolitical Fuse Is Lit
The U.S.–China standoff is no longer just trade.
• It’s about chips, AI, global dominance
• Taiwan remains the spark point
• 60% of world trade flows near military tension zones
One wrong move = global shock.
5/ Dalio’s New Playbook
Bridgewater has quietly shifted:
• More gold and commodities
• Less U.S. exposure
• Geopolitical neutrality
When the quiet money moves, pay attention.
6/ Dollar May Not Be King Forever
The USD’s supremacy is under threat:
• China and Russia are building alternative systems
• BRICS nations are trading in local currencies
• Global reserves are slowly diversifying away from the dollar
Don’t assume the next decade will look like the last.
7/ Dalio’s Risk-Proof Formula
Here’s his go-to strategy for turbulent eras:
• Global diversification
• Inflation-resistant assets
• Strategic cash positions
• Deep awareness of political risk
Survival is about flexibility, not forecasts.
8/ Crypto's Role in the New Regime
Dalio doesn’t see Bitcoin as money — but as a hedge.
• “Digital gold” in an age of fiat debasement
• Scarce, decentralized, and liquid
• Risky, but potentially vital in a crisis
It’s not a core holding — but it’s not irrelevant either.
9/ The 2025 Reset
We’re entering an era of sharp swings and new rules.
• Rising volatility
• Broken assumptions
• Power shifts across every level
The winners won’t be the best forecasters.
They’ll be the fastest adapters.