I. Technical Overview
(I) Short-term Trend Dynamic Tracking
Daily chart shows that Ethereum (ETH) has repeatedly attempted to break through the key resistance level of $2600 but has failed. The current price remains under strong pressure from the upper Bollinger Band at $2660. On the 4-hour chart, the price oscillates between the 50 EMA ($2539) and the 100 EMA ($2566), with $2510 as the key support level in the VWAP area, serving as a defensive line for bulls. If it breaks below, the psychological level of $2480 will be tested.
Technical indicators on the hourly chart release risk signals: The MACD indicator shows a top divergence phenomenon, indicating a depletion of upward momentum; the RSI value of 49.3 is close to the neutral line, showing that bullish and bearish forces are tending to balance, with significant increase in pullback pressure in the short term.
(II) Analysis of Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance ladder:
① $2540: A dense area of EMA moving averages creates technical resonance pressure;
② $2660: Resistance from the upper Bollinger Band and psychological level overlap;
③ $2710: A key barrier formed at the top of the medium to long-term trend line.
Support line:
① $2510: Dynamic support from VWAP;
② $2438: Support formed from a historical demand zone.
③ $2336: Strong technical support at the Fibonacci extension level.
II. Market Environment and News Interpretation
(I) Positive Driving Factors
1. Technological innovation boosts confidence: Ethereum has completed its core upgrade and successfully transitioned to an environmentally friendly consensus mechanism, enhancing ecological sustainability, with long-term value recognized by the market.
2. Institutional funds continue to flow in: Several international investment institutions have publicly announced increased holdings of ETH, with some analysts giving a target price of $3500 based on fundamentals, indicating a potential increase of 40% from the current price.
(II) Risk Warning Signals
1. Regulatory policy uncertainty: Many countries are continuously tightening cryptocurrency regulations, and compliance reviews are becoming stricter, which may trigger market risk aversion.
2. Technical aspect of overbought risks: The short-term RSI indicator shows signs of market overbought; if the resistance at $2600 cannot be broken, profit-taking may trigger a phase adjustment.
III. Long and Short Trading Strategies and Risk Control Plans
(I) Bullish Operation Suggestions
1. Breakout confirmation strategy: If the price can effectively stabilize above $2540 and break through the key resistance of $2600, it can be expected to rise to the range of $2660-$2710.
2. Timing for buying on dips: It is recommended to gradually enter positions when the price pulls back near the support level of $2510, controlling individual positions to not exceed 15% of the total capital.
(II) Bearish Response Plan
1. Timing for shorting a breakdown: When the 15-minute candlestick effectively falls below $2455, a light position can be opened for shorting, with a stop loss set above $2550, targeting the support level of $2438.
2. Position management principle: Strictly control the total position ratio within 30% to avoid the risk of capital drawdown caused by one-sided market conditions.
IV. Investment Decision Summary
The current Ethereum market shows a tug-of-war between bulls and bears; the technical aspect is under short-term pressure, but the medium to long-term upward logic remains solid. Investors should pay close attention to the effectiveness of the breakout above $2540, flexibly adjusting strategies in conjunction with changes in trading volume and market sentiment. Special reminder: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; strict adherence to stop-loss discipline is essential, and diversifying investments can reduce systemic risks, allowing for rational participation in market games.
