The cryptocurrency market is still in a state of readiness, with volatility potentially ready to explode

Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that the global market remains cautious, as investors assess geopolitical risks and the possibility of a rebound in volatility. Gold peaked and then retreated after the Israeli attack on June 13, weakening safe-haven demand, while WTI crude oil prices remain firm around the $75 mark.

The energy market continues to be constrained by the Israel-Iran conflict, with speculation rising about potential U.S. military intervention. The U.S. dollar has slightly weakened as investors bet on the increasing likelihood of direct U.S. involvement in regional conflicts within the next 48 hours, prompting a moderate withdrawal of funds from the dollar.

In terms of cryptocurrency, BTC continues its sideways movement. Despite heightened macro uncertainty and political noise from Trump’s social media comments, price fluctuations remain subdued. Market sentiment is cautious, and position data shows investors are waiting for clearer catalysts.

The risk reversal indicators for BTC and ETH show that investors in the June and September contracts are more inclined to hedge against downside risks, indicating that bulls are actively protecting their spot positions. Notably, the implied volatility of ETH's June at-the-money options has fallen below that of the September contracts, reflecting a contraction in short-term specific risk premium, which may be related to a reduction in event-driven hedging or profit-taking in short-term volatility.

In contrast, BTC’s near-month contracts still maintain a slight volatility premium. The current cryptocurrency market remains poised, and the next headline news, macro shift, or tail event could trigger historically significant volatility.