#BTC
Price and technical overview: Trading price is approximately $104,700, slightly down during the session, but firmly holding above key clusters (50/200 day moving averages), indicating that the bullish structure is resilient.
Momentum signals: RSI (+14 days ~54) neutral, MACD divergence slightly bullish—suggesting that if it holds above the $105,000 to $106,500 area, an increase may occur. Technical formation: Some analysts emphasize that breaking above $105,300 will form a 'bullish flag,' which could drive Bitcoin up to around $160,000 in the coming months.
Macroeconomic and institutional drivers 1. Corporate Bitcoin accumulation: More than 130 publicly traded companies, including MicroStrategy (now Strategy), Tesla, and Block, hold about $87 billion in Bitcoin, a year-on-year increase of 170%. Institutional buying is a key catalyst for the current Bitcoin rebound.
Just with this strategy, nearly 500,000 BTC have been accumulated this year through convertible bonds (average price around $33 billion). Despite short-term price weakness, it remains an aggressive accumulation.
2. U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Policy The U.S. government (through an executive order in March 2025) currently holds approximately 200,000 BTC and may expand its reserves. This unprecedented sovereign accumulation adds a new structural layer to demand.
3. Federal Reserve and U.S. Dollar dynamics The Federal Reserve has signaled a 'hawkish pause,' maintaining high interest rates. A weakening dollar may redirect capital to BTC, especially under geopolitical tensions such as the Israel-Iran conflict. Risks and market concerns about regulatory uncertainty persist (exchanges, ETFs, mining regulation); any crackdown could trigger volatility.
On-chain data shows caution: earlier this year, network activity dropped to an annual low, indicating a decline in demand and a risk of consolidation or pullback to the range of approximately $86,000 to $95,000.
Macroeconomic liquidity pressures: Historically, declines in global M2 money supply have coincided with BTC pullbacks; although ETF and corporate buying can mitigate this impact.
Market sentiment bullish clues: rising institutional adoption, corporate bonds, on-chain accumulation, and macro tailwinds. Bearish caution: weakened network activity and macro headwinds suggest a deeper pullback or sideways consolidation.
Outlook and key levels for traders in the short-term: support level around $104,000 to $105,000 cluster; resistance level: $106,500 to $109,000 (a breakout may trigger a rebound). Focus on the Bollinger Bands squeeze breakout; if bullish momentum continues, the next target is approximately $120,000 to $160,000. Conversely, losing support at $104,000 could lead to a price drop to $86,000-$95,000. Long-term institutional fund flows, ETF adoption, and sovereign reserves could drive BTC to exceed $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025 or in 2026.
Bitcoin's current price reflects a delicate balance: strong demand from corporations, ETFs, and even national reserves supports the medium-term bullish outlook, but weak network activity and macroeconomic pressures warrant caution. Key levels to watch closely are $104,000-$109,000; if momentum continues, then $120,000-$160,000. Today's key points: focus on the $105,000-$106,000 area. A breakout confirms the continuation of bullish momentum; a drop below could initiate a deeper pullback. If you need trading setups, deeper on-chain data, or industry comparisons, and feel lost and unsure about what to do, then follow me! You need reference; guessing is not as good as following!