Emergency Notice: UNI Bull-Bear Showdown is Imminent!
In-depth Technical Analysis
The original support level was mistakenly marked as 6.786, the actual support level is 6.166. Today, it quickly rebounded after testing 6.166, verifying the strength of the support.
The current price of 7.802 has stabilized above the MA7 (7.638) and MA30 (7.643) moving averages, but the two moving averages are almost glued together, indicating an inflection point.
Volume Signal: The 24-hour trading volume reached 230 million UNI. The bid price of 7.809 has 9.1355 million UNI orders, forming a short-term support wall; however, the MACD (0.003) histogram is close to the zero axis, indicating insufficient bullish momentum.
Market Sentiment: The ask price of 7.808 has accumulated 9.91 million UNI of selling pressure. If this is broken, it can open up upward space; conversely, if it falls below 7.600 (psychological level), it may trigger a long squeeze.
Latest News Catalyst
Major Positive: Uniswap Foundation proposed to delay token unlocking (originally scheduled to release 8.33% of circulating supply in August), and the community voting support rate reached 72%. If passed, it will significantly alleviate selling pressure expectations.
Potential Negative: The US SEC is re-investigating the "securities attributes of DeFi tokens". UNI is still on the watch list, and regulatory FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) has not dissipated.
On-Chain Activity: A whale address increased holdings by 2.87 million UNI in 3 hours, with a cost price of 7.71, suspected of bottom-fishing.
Risk Warning:
If the SEC suddenly takes action or BTC loses 66k, UNI may quickly break through the 6.166 support and explore 5.8 (weekly neckline).
Trend Deduction Conclusion
Bullish Probability 60%: Technical accumulation + positive news outweighing, it is recommended to build positions in batches during the callback to the 7.6-7.7 range, and add positions when breaking through 7.808.
Defensive Strategy: Strictly stop loss at 6.16, and immediately leave if it breaks.
Given the delay in message transmission, the above is my personal opinion, and it is recommended that you combine real-time dynamics for independent analysis and judgment.
