6.19-6.20 Bitcoin Market Analysis

Yesterday, the U.S. stock market was closed, and the situation in the Middle East was tense, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The cryptocurrency market stabilized slightly, with Bitcoin and Ethereum entering a narrow range of fluctuations.

Bitcoin fluctuated around 104,500, with a movement of about 500, while Ethereum was pulled back and forth around 2,500, showing small volatility.

Currently, short-term holders continue to sell, causing the market to switch back and forth between bullish and bearish trends. There are no strong factors driving prices up or down, and the market is gradually aligning with long-term holders, strengthening the bottom support. Therefore, the support at 100,000 is quite strong in the short term and is unlikely to be broken.

Currently, BTC is facing strong short-term resistance around 105,500. Trading volume is gradually increasing, but buying interest appears to be insufficient, hindering upward momentum. Combined with chip distribution analysis, this position is the area of maximum trading volume, making it challenging to break through.

From a technical perspective, although the MACD showed a golden cross in the morning, the momentum of the histogram weakened, and prices are still operating below the EMA52. The candlestick pattern also confirms significant pressure, as two consecutive bullish candles have failed to effectively stabilize above 105,000, indicating insufficient upward momentum and a situation of continued tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Recent uncertainties from the FOMC meeting and Powell's continued wait-and-see attitude have kept market sentiment at a low level. The last time this occurred was after the announcement of tariffs, when the market plummeted. Due to the division between bullish and bearish camps, the market is gradually shifting from overheated bullish sentiment to a neutral stance.

However, some analysts believe that "this situation is usually seen as a bullish signal, as historically, the market often moves in the opposite direction of retail investors' expectations."

Retail investors tend to cash out and exit, while long-term holders continue to accumulate. Recent selling and buying activities have been evident, leading to increased uncertainty regarding the direction, which has elongated the market's oscillating trend in the short term.

Short-term investors should pay attention to the bullish and bearish reversal signals in the pressure and support ranges when operating, and should act according to the market by selling high and buying low. Mid-to-long-term players need to patiently wait for the next entry opportunity after the direction becomes clear. During oscillating markets, it is essential to observe the direction of large transactions and changes in market conditions.