Bitcoin is not lowering its interest rates again, but the dot plot shows that there will still be two cuts this year. So let's look forward to the remaining half of the year. Bitcoin is currently around 106,000 as the central axis, consolidating between 102,000 and 110,000.
BTC
Bitcoin's triangle pattern has broken down, resistance at 105,800, unable to close above, we can look at the red horizontal line position below at the current level! Pay attention to the bottom red trend line in the wedge expansion, provided that the triangular area is effective! It should be noted that a clear multiple bottom has formed on the hourly level, with the price at 103,500, stabilizing here looks for a rebound.
Heightened attention on 100,900-101,500! It should not be overly bearish here if it hasn't been broken down before. 101,500 can be a good point to buy on dips. If we can't hold above 106,100, then don't talk about stopping the drop, let alone strengthening. Shorting here has the highest cost-performance ratio.
Recently, I have been making arbitrage trades daily, opening positions backed by support and resistance, with a good chance of winning. Leave some space for stop-loss to prevent false breaks. One trade a day, the crypto world is like a walking ATM, withdrawing only and not recharging.
Breaking news: The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has issued an evacuation warning to Israel, specifically to the area of the Dimona nuclear power plant. Iran will attack Israel's nuclear facilities. Is this going to be a mutual destruction? This could escalate greatly, either pushing Israel to negotiate or leading to a reckless attack. It shouldn't be too calm in the next couple of days; will BTC and MD continue to plummet?
ETH
ETH is still holding strong, similarly in a narrow range at low positions. Currently, there is no trend, with multiple tests of support around 2480. Both bulls and bears are squeezing each other's space until a one-sided breakout occurs. The current position is almost 50-50 on a smaller scale. Just be patient and wait for the direction to come out.
2540 is a strong and weak level; below this is weak. If recovered, there is a chance to test 2610. 2445/2380 can be used for short-term long rebounds.
Altcoin
BCH is preparing to break its previous high, going against the trend! If you're on board, give a thumbs up. BCH recommended at 455 peaked at 489.9 and is about to break 500.
How BCH will perform in the future is uncertain. If you hold a small position in spot, it could yield decent returns.
Many fans ask me why altcoins are not rising?
Answer: The market dynamics have changed in this bull market.
In this bull market, institutions have been buying. Everyone has confidence, believing that when institutions buy to a certain extent, Bitcoin's price will be high enough for funds to overflow into the altcoin pool. However, no one expected that just before reaching this critical point, the market dynamics changed. Funds that couldn't keep up with Bitcoin started to shift their focus to stocks. Last night, Circle surged by 34%, and Coin surged by 16%, causing what was supposed to be an altcoin bull market to shift to the stock market.
With various micro-strategies popping up like mushrooms after rain, soon the market's long-tail funds will be fixed, making the native altcoin market even more unclear. Now, any altcoin with potential is probably connecting with institutions in the traditional market. Early projects linking to coin stocks feast while latecomers only get soup. Old coins that can't rise in the coin market may eventually trend to zero as macro fluctuations gradually take hold.
In summary, this round of altcoins is really difficult to play. It may be the final settlement of the previous rounds of altcoin bulls, and the coin market and stock market are beginning to enter a new era of coin-stocks and stock-coins.
If altcoins can't rise, which altcoins are suitable for shorting?
Let's talk about the logic of shorting:
1. Those that have risen 5-10 times in the last two months.
2. Overvalued market cap, pure vapor market cap of several hundred million or more.
3. The main force shows signs of offloading, currently still at a high position.
4. Newly launched coins with no application, continuously declining.
On-chain
CAILA: Since being bought by the Trump family project WIFL, $B went from 0.0058 when it launched on Alpha to a peak of 0.468, an increase of nearly 100 times. Where there is Dragon 1, there must be Dragon 2. Recently, CAILA distributed a 600U airdrop to the top 1000 users by trading volume, a rare generosity in the project.
With the backing of $USD1 and the BSC chain, CAILA is steadily advancing with solid community operations and differentiated narratives. I think we can expect good things as the USD1 ecosystem bursts forth!
Stablecoin narrative: The various USD meme coins show that the market's focus is on stablecoins. It is said that many institutions are starting to seek Paxos for one-click stablecoin production services. For ordinary retail investors, participating in stablecoins means buying into the infrastructure and leading projects in the RWA sector, which are the most direct tracks for stablecoins. Don't buy those projects that seem stable; they are risky paths. Regular forces entering the market must first eliminate the bandits, which are the so-called bandits.
If you're confused and helpless about what to do, just follow me. I need fans, you need references; guessing isn't as good as following!