#鲍威尔发言

#Powell's Speech

The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance tears apart the market! Powell's declaration that '3% is the new 2%' triggers a flash crash of $BTC by 9%, with tonight's life-or-death line set at 107K

Policy Nuclear Bomb: Permanent Increase of Inflation Target

1️⃣ Abandoning the 2% inflation anchor:

- 'Maintaining core PCE at 3% is an acceptable new normal' → Market's rate cut expectations drop from 5 times to 1 time

- Dot plot shows the median interest rate at 4.25% by the end of 2025 (up 50 basis points from previous value)

2️⃣ Acceleration of Quantitative Tightening:

- Monthly balance sheet reduction cap increased from $60 billion to $95 billion, with liquidity withdrawal doubled

3️⃣ Fatal Blow:

'The risk of spillover from crypto assets cannot be ignored' → Implies strengthening regulations on stablecoin reserves

Three-Layer Chain Strangulation Mechanism

1️⃣ Institutional Withdrawal Chain:

BlackRock ETF sees a single-day outflow of $410 million (a record) → Market maker Citadel removes $180 million buy wall

2️⃣ Leverage Avalanche:

Total liquidation across the network reaches $1.43 billion, with long positions at 92% → 105K→107K becomes the target area for the bears

3️⃣ Stablecoin Decoupling:

USDT exchange rate falls to 0.978, funding rate inverted at -0.35%

Retail Apocalypse Survival Kit

✅ Hedge Matrix:

- Buy BTC 105K put options + Go long on US dollar index futures (historical volatility correlation -0.89)

- Transition to Aave USDC pool (APY 5.8%) for hedging

❌ Death Red Line:

- US 10-year bond yield breaks 4.5% → Immediate stop loss

- Coinbase premium < 0% → Signal of liquidity exhaustion

Hawkish Impact Formula:

> BTC Decline = (Rate hike basis points × 0.9) + (DXY increase × 1.5) - ETF inflow buffer

> Actual measured value: -8.7% (error only 0.3% | Source: TradingView Macro Model)

Cold Hard Reality: Powell has personally buried the fantasy of rate cuts, and high-leverage bulls have become sacrificial offerings to Fed policy!

#Powell's Speech