Coinbase becomes an S&P component, Wall Street officially concedes defeat.
Early this morning, crypto US stocks welcomed an epic good news—Coinbase (COIN) was officially included in the S&P 500 index, with after-hours stock price jumping 10%. This is not only the first time the crypto industry has entered a mainstream financial index but also means Wall Street has completely bowed down: traditional capital must give way to the pricing power of on-chain assets.
Data shows that Coinbase currently has a market capitalization of $65.4 billion, with 890,000 BTC under custody (accounting for 4% of circulation), and Q1 trading income of $1.26 billion, with institutional clients accounting for over 60%. This operation directly slaps the SEC in the face, after all, they sued Coinbase for 'illegally operating securities' last year, but now they tacitly allow it to enter the door.
Core targets: Three types of players are fiercely attracting traditional funds.
The dual giants of exchanges: Coinbase and Robinhood
Coinbase: A rising star in the S&P 500, holding 85% of the BTC options market share on Deribit, with Q1 derivatives revenue surging 86%. Recently launched Bitcoin-backed loans, aiming at Grayscale Trust's staking business, with a clear goal: to keep institutions locked in an on-chain financial closed loop.
Robinhood (HOOD): A zero-commission strategy harvesting Generation Z, with crypto trading accounting for 30% of the retail market, and $85 billion of the $220 billion in managed assets flowing into BTC/ETH.
The latest move is a $200 million acquisition of Bitstamp, directly threatening Coinbase's territory in Europe.
The whale hoarder: MicroStrategy (MSTR)'s leveraged gamble
Business intelligence company MicroStrategy currently holds BTC worth $30 billion, with a market cap of $108.5 billion, and its stock price shows a 3x leverage effect relative to BTC's rise. But don’t be fooled by appearances—MSTR is crazily leveraging through convertible bonds and equity dilution. If BTC retraces 20%, its stock price may be halved.
This is essentially an institutional version of a contract casino, only suitable for high-risk gamblers.
Mining companies' predicament: Hashrate competition, cost pressures
After the Bitcoin halving, mining companies enter a life-and-death elimination race:
Marathon (MARA) has a mining cost of $52,000 per BTC, barely profiting with low electricity prices;
Riot (RIOT)'s hashrate expansion led to a 232% annual increase in depreciation expenses, and its stock price has underperformed BTC by 40% this year.
The only way out for mining companies: to tightly embrace AI hashrate.
HIVE and Core Scientific have transformed into GPU cluster leasing, using ETH mining machines for AI training, diversifying income to hedge against coin price fluctuations.
Conflict point: Compliance dividends vs. regulatory hidden dangers.
On the surface, crypto US stocks are reaping policy dividends: the passage of the US (GENIUS Act), the Hong Kong (stablecoin regulations) effective in August, and Ant Group's application for a Hong Kong stablecoin license.
But the deep-seated contradiction erupts at asset transparency:
Although Circle (CRCL) stock price hit a new high (up 25% in a single day), the USDC reserves audit was questioned for 'beautifying the proportion of treasury bonds';
Tesla (TSLA)'s $1.08 billion BTC holdings have yet to disclose whether they have reduced their holdings, and they are under investigation by the SEC
This exposes the biggest vulnerability of crypto US stocks: the incompatibility between traditional financial report systems and on-chain assets. Once an audit disaster occurs, stock prices can drop to zero instantly.
Is someone going to bottom fish in US stock mining companies?
After Coinbase was included in the S&P 500, a certain research institute quickly published an article supporting 'modular blockchain', with opBNB chain TVL surging 23% in a single day
Everyone understands: a certain entity will never sit idle while Coinbase monopolizes institutional traffic. Recently, it is possible that:
Acquiring North American mining companies: MARA and RIOT have market capitalizations of only $5.5 billion and $3.1 billion respectively, and a certain entity has enough cash reserves to swallow them
Launching compliant ETFs: If a certain entity collaborates with BlackRock to issue a BTC/ETH staking ETF, it will directly divert COIN's custody business
Holding a listed exchange: Bakkt (BKKT) has a sluggish market value, and a certain entity can use a reverse merger to enter the S&P 500 ecosystem
Data verification
Policy basis: The full text of the US (GENIUS Act) has been uploaded to the Congressional website.
On-chain evidence: Coinbase's inclusion in the S&P 500 information has been confirmed by Nasdaq's official account.
Market anomalies: MSTR's options open interest surged 3 times, with implied volatility breaking 200%.
Final blow
When Coinbase gilds crypto assets with the S&P 500 ticket, this game has entered a new phase: either drink soup with institutions or be strangled by on-chain leverage.
The most dangerous thing in a bull market is not missing out, but mistaking speculation for investment.
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