#鲍威尔发言

🔍 Key Points Summary

1. Maintain interest rates unchanged, focus on future trends

The federal funds rate will be maintained in the range of 4.25‑4.50% and the balance sheet will continue to shrink.

Emphasizes that the Fed will assess future policies based on the latest data, economic outlook, and risk balance.

2. Core and overall inflation trends

The May PCE inflation rate is 2.3%, and core PCE is 2.6%, still slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.

The key is to observe whether tariff impacts are driving inflation; non-housing service items have already declined, but clearer tariff data is needed for decision-making.

3. Robust labor market

The unemployment rate remains around 4.2%, with no significant signs of weakness in the job market.

Labor participation and wages are stable, overall there is no labor market crisis.

4. Tariffs remain a key variable in policy

The impact of tariffs may be both temporary and persistent; their 'scale, transmission time, and impact on inflation expectations' will influence what kind of policy the Fed adopts.

5. Importance of data quality and transparency

Emphasizes the importance of strengthening economic data collection and warns that if budget cuts lead to a decline in data quality, it may leave the Fed 'flying blind' in decision-making.

6. No commitment to interest rate cuts within the year, but not ruled out

Although a forecast of two rate cuts before the end of 2025 is possible, it states that there is currently a lack of sufficient confidence and that inflation must first be confirmed to continue decreasing.