What did Powell say at dawn?

At 2:30 AM Beijing time in the early morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell began the press conference regarding this interest rate decision.

The focus of this meeting is not to lower interest rates for the time being, and due to the rise in core inflation PCE, they will continue to maintain a neutral interest rate in the short term.

The trigger that could lead the Federal Reserve to quickly start lowering interest rates is an economic recession, but current data shows there are no concerns in this regard.

What they need to see now is whether the impact of tariffs will raise inflation temporarily and then quickly fall back, or if it will remain high.

So the final question is whether the Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates. Powell's response is that there are currently no such considerations.

Trump criticizes Powell every day, yet during this press conference, Powell does not mention Trump, but his words are inseparable from him.

The dot plot shows that 7 officials believe there will be no rate cuts this year, possibly due to the impact of these tariffs.

Personally, I lean towards believing that rate cuts will only happen after September this year; the market still needs to wait for the inflation effects brought by the tariffs to materialize in July.

In the short term, there hasn't been a significant influx of liquidity; aside from the consistent strength of the US stock market, other markets are showing signs of fatigue.

In short, to rise, one must first fall. Only by compressing the spring to the extreme can it jump higher. The benefits of rate cut expectations may only start to materialize around August or September, and it could be in the last quarter that they begin.