Powell will bring a one-sided market at two o'clock tonight

There is a high probability of continuing to maintain a speech of not lowering interest rates in the short term

The low-probability event is an early start to interest rate cuts

The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve is to stabilize prices and ensure employment

It seems that this round of US Treasuries is likely to fail to sell, and the probability of the Federal Reserve stepping in is extremely high

So in the short term, the risk of a US Treasury bond crash is merely a risk. If Powell continues not to compromise with the market, the outcome will not just be a black swan; it will be a financial nuclear bomb

The short cycle of the pie on the 4H chart tested the support around 103k last night and started a rebound during the day. The bulls may have a chance to counterattack, with 1058 as the first resistance and 1072 as the second resistance. Today, we should focus on preventing a quick sell-off after a breakout upward, which could trigger a significant downward trend. Do not fall before dawn.