"The news front is turbulent, and the technical front is under death cross pressure—BTC's consolidation is not a rest, but the calm before the storm!"

News front: The game of policy and sentiment.

  1. Policy benefits vs regulatory headwinds:

    • The U.S. Treasury Secretary publicly stated that 'stablecoins bolster the dollar's hegemony,' injecting policy confidence into the crypto market;

    • However, the UK plans to implement restrictive banking regulations on crypto, coupled with Washington State's ban on Bitcoin ATMs due to a surge in fraud, which will dampen market sentiment in the short term.

  2. Leverage retreat: The delta value of open contracts has fallen into negative territory after 180 days, with $11.3 billion in leveraged funds withdrawn, indicating that traders are becoming cautious and lacking rebound momentum.

  3. Federal Reserve shadow: If the Fed suggests tonight that 'there will only be one rate cut in 2025,' BTC may face downward pressure.

Technical analysis: Death cross pressure, triangular convergence awaits a breakout.

  1. MACD death cross strengthens bearish sentiment:

    • The 4-hour chart MACD indicator clearly shows a death cross with DIF: 427.4, DEA: 327.7, histogram -199.5 and increasing, indicating that bears dominate the short-term trend.

  2. Key level battle:

    • Resistance: Dense moving averages suppressing 106,100-106,800 combined with the downward trend line of the symmetrical triangle, making it difficult for bulls to break through;

    • Support: 103,300-104,400 forms a critical line; if breached, it will trigger a selling wave, targeting 101,500 or even 98,300.

"The opportunity for sudden wealth always arises in panic—are you waiting for prey, or becoming prey?"

Tap the avatar to follow Big D, wealth comes quicker! Daily in-depth market trend analysis + cutting-edge information, professional team guiding you on the path to doubling your investments.$BTC #BTC走势分析