The FOMC meeting minutes of the FED have just been released - Quick summary

→ Interest rates remain unchanged at 4.25-4.5%

→ High inflation: Significant inflation warnings may arise in the near future, with a forecast for 2025 at 3%, much higher than the previous forecast (2.4%).

→ Uncertainty has decreased but remains high. Mainly referring to risks from tax policy. And note: the war has not yet been included in the official forecasting model.

→ Forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025: 7 members: No cuts. 2 members: One cut. 8 members: Two cuts. 2 members: Three cuts.

The FED states that economic activity is still growing, but ISM data does not reflect that – it could be a way of speaking to avoid rate cuts.

Finally, the Fed has not committed to a specific timeline for the next rate cut due to unclear impacts from tax and trade policy.