The whole world waited anxiously for a night, hoping for a surprise from Iran that would be remembered for centuries, but it ended up being a lonely wait, with just a few heavy hypersonic missiles fired and a few concrete buildings destroyed. It seems Iran is still not bold enough to use nuclear weapons. Yesterday, Bitcoin almost dropped below 10, touching 9, causing panic again, and many likely sold at a loss. When checking this morning, lo and behold, BTC is still above 105,000; it was just a lonely drop! The unfortunate ones are the many altcoins. It seems Bitcoin has strong support at the 105,000 level, rebounding quickly above this mark after several strong hits, which should be a positive sign, as solid support allows for a bounce.
It now seems highly likely that the situation between Israel and Iran will escalate or transform.
Whether or not the U.S. will intervene will soon be revealed. This war, prepared by both sides for 46 years, will inevitably be recorded in Middle Eastern history as a major conflict, regardless of the outcome, just like the wars of 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973.
After the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution, anti-Americanism and anti-Israel sentiment became Iran's core ideology. Iran is also the only country in the world that publicly advocates wiping Israel 'off the map,' and Israel sees Iran as its greatest security threat.
For many years, Iran has carefully cultivated the 'resistance axis' around Israel, concentrating efforts on developing ballistic missiles to avoid today's situation. Israel, on the other hand, has sought to undermine Iran's nuclear capabilities through covert operations and continuously iterates its missile defense systems, not wanting to engage in face-to-face military conflict with Iran.
However, that day ultimately came.
Military adventurism has reached its peak.
Historically, Israel has often discussed striking Iran's nuclear facilities, but has never taken action. Militarily, there are concerns about Iran's large-scale retaliation and fears of Hezbollah's involvement. Hezbollah has positioned tens of thousands of troops at Israel's border, claiming to possess 150,000 missiles and rockets, ready to launch at any moment. Politically, there are differing opinions among Israel's domestic parties regarding the effectiveness and necessity of such strikes. Diplomatically, the U.S. has been unwilling to endorse Israel.
It seems that suddenly, these constraining factors have all disappeared, and Israel believes this is a God-given opportunity.
The war between Israel and Iran is a continuation and expansion of the Gaza conflict. It is precisely the experience from the Gaza conflict that has greatly boosted Israel's confidence, leading to rampant military adventurism. At the beginning of the Gaza conflict, Israel faced a seven-front war, finding itself in a very passive position. At that time, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Houthi forces, and Iran all attacked Israeli territory, making Israel a target that could be struck by anyone.
However, in the past year, Israel has continuously achieved military victories, with key members of the resistance axis, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria, nearly facing annihilation, causing Iran's decades-long resistance axis to collapse. Particularly in 2024, when Israel and Iran began attacking each other's territories, Iran's military vulnerabilities became exposed. After that, Israel became convinced that there were no longer any military obstacles to striking Iran.
After nearly two years of a series of military conflicts, Israel's confidence has been continually inflated. It has not only reshaped the regional landscape but is also quietly rewriting the rules of the game, trying to construct what is called a 'New Middle East Order.' Netanyahu has stated bluntly that Israel is 'changing the Middle East,' asserting that 'Syria is no longer the Syria of the past, Lebanon is no longer the Lebanon of the past, Gaza is no longer the Gaza of the past, and Iran, which leads the axis of resistance, is no longer the Iran of the past.'
Israel's three major obstacles to striking Iran have disappeared in an instant.
Domestically, facing Netanyahu's military adventurism and its successive victories, the opposition quickly changed its stance and stood alongside Netanyahu. Opposition leader Lapid stated that although Netanyahu is my political opponent, I fully support the war against Iran. In fact, launching a war against Iran has instead solidified Netanyahu's hold on power.
Militarily, the threat posed by Hezbollah to Israel has diminished, and Iran's military strength has not withstood the test of actual combat, allowing Israel to act without concern.
Diplomatically, like Netanyahu, Trump is also an adventurist, readily giving Netanyahu the green light.
Therefore, this war is a result of changes in the power dynamics of the Middle East, as well as a choice of Israel's military adventurism, and is a negative consequence of Trump's new Middle East strategy. Trump initially aimed to be the 'peace president,' but he is being gradually drawn into a large-scale war in the Middle East by Israel. Former senior director of the Israeli National Security Council, Avner Golov, pointed out that 'for the first time in the history of Zionism, Israel has the opportunity to become a regional power.'
The battlefield situation is changing rapidly.
First, this may be a rapid and decisive local war.
Israel's minimum goal is to completely destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, which it believes may require 10 to 20 days of continuous bombing. The chairman of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Grossi, has warned that Iran's nuclear facilities are widely dispersed and buried deep, making complete destruction difficult. Israeli analysts believe that the Israel Defense Forces have only destroyed about one-third of Iran's nuclear program, which can only delay its nuclear progress by a few months, rather than years.
If the U.S. directly intervenes in the coming days, providing Israel with strategic bombers and super-heavy bombs, Israel could launch attacks on Iran's underground nuclear facilities, including the large uranium enrichment plant located in Fordow. At that time, if Israel quickly declares the war over and Iran does not retaliate, the war might come to a pause, with an outcome similar to Israel's attacks on Iraq and Syria's nuclear facilities in the past.
Secondly, this may be a long-term war of attrition.
If the U.S. refuses to directly participate, Israel does not have the capability to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities on its own, and the war is likely to drag on. The nearly 2000 kilometers distance between Israel and Iran is an important premise of this war; neither side can deploy ground troops, and air combat is the only option. The history of Middle Eastern wars shows that it is difficult to completely defeat an opponent through air combat alone. Although Israel has a military advantage, it can only wear down Iran's patience through continuous aerial strikes.
Former director of Israel's Military Intelligence, Yadlin, said: 'Iran cannot defeat Israel, but Israel also does not have the capability to completely destroy Iran's nuclear program.' Iran is at a disadvantage, but it can still continuously launch missiles and drones at Israeli cities, causing panic in Israel. Ultimately, both sides will be tested on their social endurance.
Thirdly, this may be another strategic game of promoting talks through confrontation.
In this round of the Gaza conflict, Israel has consistently employed tactics of promoting talks through fighting, using similar methods against both Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel and the U.S. have repeatedly threatened that either Iran dismantles its nuclear facilities itself, or it will face military strikes. So far, Iran, Israel, and the U.S. have not ruled out the possibility of negotiations. The U.S. and Israel hope that under strong military pressure, Iran will make greater compromises and agree to dismantle its nuclear facilities, and even its missile facilities, in exchange for Israel stopping its military actions.
Fourthly, this may be a prelude to a large-scale Middle Eastern war.
Iran has repeatedly threatened that it may attack U.S. bases in the Middle East, as well as Arab countries assisting the U.S. and Israel, and even blockade the Strait of Hormuz. However, no action has been taken. Clearly, Iran is still observing the movements of Israel and the U.S.
If Iran attacks U.S. military bases first, it will inevitably provoke direct U.S. intervention. However, if the U.S. takes the first step and directly intervenes, Iran will have no qualms about attacking U.S. bases. Blockading the Strait of Hormuz would be a suicidal defense, but when Iran has nowhere to retreat, this possibility cannot be completely ruled out.
Fifthly, this may be an all-encompassing game regarding regime change.
For many years, both Israel and the United States have wanted regime change in Iran but have struggled to find a path or means. Although both Israel and the United States deny that regime change is the goal of the war, more and more signs indicate that Israel may be pointing towards regime change. Destroying Iran's nuclear and missile facilities can only delay Iran's development and cannot fundamentally solve the problem. Only regime change can resolve the issue once and for all, fundamentally altering the power dynamics in the Middle East.
In recent days, Israel has not only bombed military targets and targeted military leaders but has also attacked Iran's energy facilities, power systems, and national television, even threatening to eliminate Supreme Leader Khamenei, all of which are pushing towards regime change.
Only the United States can end the war.
"Israel starts the war, only the U.S. can end it." (The Economist) This article is titled as such. However, this may only be one side of the story; the other side is — only the U.S. can let the war spiral out of control.
The U.S. policy choices are crucial to the direction of the war. However, the U.S. performance has been disappointing. At the conclusion of the G7 summit on June 17, due to U.S. opposition, the statement did not call for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Iran. In the international community, including European countries, where there are widespread calls for an end to the war, the U.S. once again found itself opposing the majority of countries.
According to media reports, Iran has conveyed messages to the United States through Qatar and Oman, hoping to restart the negotiation process. However, based on feedback from Russia's contacts with Israel, Israel has refused to return to the negotiating table. In this situation, only the United States can exert enough pressure on Israel. Trump can urge Israel to end the war, or he can allow Israel to continue its offensive. The United States has enough influence over Israel; it just depends on whether Trump is willing to use that influence.
Without U.S. weapon support, Israel's war cannot continue. Without U.S. strategic bombers and massive bombs, Israel cannot destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities. So far, the U.S. has not utilized this influence; instead, it has gathered more forces in the Middle East to support Israel in undertaking larger-scale military actions.
If the U.S. does not directly participate in the war, it is likely that the war will remain limited to air combat between Iran and Israel. Iran will not proactively attack U.S. military bases in the Middle East, and the war will not spill over into other Middle Eastern countries. However, if the U.S. directly participates in Israel's offensive against Iran, the likelihood of Iran attacking U.S. military bases will be very high, inevitably dragging the Gulf Arab nations into the conflict, greatly expanding the scope of the war.
In his speech on June 15, Trump was ambiguous: 'We are not participating right now, but we might. But right now we are not participating.' However, Trump's support for Israel is very clear, even to the extent of 'no distinction between you and me.' On the evening of the 16th, after returning early from the G7 summit in Canada, he stated on social media, 'We have complete control over the airspace above Iran,' and called for Iran to 'surrender unconditionally.'
The time window for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran is very narrow; the international community must seize this brief opportunity. Before both Israel and Iran still have room for compromise, the war should be stopped, and negotiations should be initiated. Once this critical moment is missed, the war will enter an irreversible phase, and the Middle East will fall into another catastrophic war. As the external country with the greatest influence over Israel and Iran, the United States bears primary responsibility.
Source | Guangming Daily