The Federal Reserve's decision last night clearly indicated that there will be no rate cut in June, while still leaving the possibility of a rate cut for the entire year uncertain. Among the 19 officials, 10 expect two rate cuts for the year, 7 believe there will be no rate cuts for the year, and another 2 think there will be only one rate cut. This is obviously not an expectation that excites the market.
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points in both September and December, it will still align with the current market pricing, and volatility will be relatively mild. However, if there is no rate cut in September, it will trigger a release of pessimistic sentiment in the market.
Again, I want to emphasize that my strategy for spot trading has always been clear: start building positions after a 50% drop, double down when it drops 70%. The goal is to achieve an annualized compound return of 50%-150%. I only trade 1-2 times a year.
