Current BTC price is $104,883.95, below MA200 (106,325) and holding cost (105,861), with pressure at the middle-upper Bollinger Band, 24-hour volume sluggish (ratio 0.438), and order book showing significant selling pressure (buy-sell ratio 0.748). The short-term trend is weak; recommend shorting: entry at 104,900, stop loss at 105,500, target 104,000, profit and loss ratio 1.4. Risk: Low volume amplifies volatility, and if it breaks 105,500, the strategy fails; position ≤2%.
Technical Analysis
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Band Position 60.76% (middle-upper band), price pressured at the upper band 105,603, with limited upward space.
• MA200 Deviation -1.36%, price below long-term moving average, trend is bearish.
• Holding Cost Deviation -0.92%, cost line suppresses price, reflecting selling pressure.
2. Market Strength and Weakness:
• Volume Analysis: 24-hour volume ratio 0.438 (below average), low market activity, major players are cautious.
• Price and Volume Correlation: Price increased by 0.32% in the last 24 hours but volume shrank, with no breakout signal, and the adjustment continues with low volume.
• Open Interest Change: 24-hour open interest down 0.10%, diverging from slight price increase, indicating weak bullish momentum.
• Smart Money Long-Short Ratio: The long-short ratio rises to 1.5129, indicating smart money is slightly long but has not reversed the bearish trend.
• Market News: No significant news; low funding rate (0.00000588), market sentiment neutral but cautious, recent data has been digested.
3. Key Support and Resistance Levels:
• Support Levels: 104,644 (buyer liquidity 775k USDT), 104,000 (Bollinger Band lower limit).
• Resistance Levels: 104,883 (seller liquidity 474k USDT), 105,500 (top sell order area).
• Liquidity Area: Buyer concentration at 104,644-104,708 (total value 1.75M USDT), seller concentration at 104,883-105,021 (total value 1.48M USDT).
• Buy-Sell Pressure Ratio: 0.748 (selling pressure dominates), historically below 0.8 shows bearish advantage.
• Total Order Value: Nearby sell orders 20.1M vs buy orders 14.2M, strong selling pressure barrier; small differences in medium to long-range.
• Liquidity Gap: Sparse sell orders in the range of 104,900-105,000, easily triggering price fluctuations.
Market Cycle Analysis
Currently in the mid-stage of a bear market: price below MA200, low volume, declining open interest, indicating capital outflow and consolidation characteristics, with no clear bull market signals.
Trading Strategy
• Entry Point: 104,900 (aggressive), close to the current price and resistance area.
• Stop Loss Point: 105,500 (Bollinger Band upper limit and top sell order area).
• Target Level: 104,000 (Bollinger Band lower limit and psychological support).
• Profit and Loss Ratio: 1.4 (calculated based on Short formula).
Risk Warning
• Market Risk: Low volume (ratio 0.438) amplifies volatility; low funding rate indicates unstable sentiment; if macro events occur (e.g., regulatory news), the risk of price flash crashes is high.
• Strategy Invalid Conditions: If the price breaks 105,500 (resistance level), immediately stop loss and reassess; or if volume spikes above 0.6, indicating major player involvement.
• Operation Precautions: Single position ≤ total capital 2%; avoid periods of insufficient liquidity (e.g., Asian session); prioritize using limit orders to prevent slippage.
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