🧠 1. Key factors to know from the Fed today
If today is the announcement day:
• Interest Rate Decision
• Dot Plot (future interest rate forecast)
• FOMC statement
• Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell
These are events with a huge impact on financial markets, especially crypto.
📈 2. Scenarios affecting ETH/USDT
✅ Scenario 1: Fed 'dovish' (Dovish) – possibility of PUMP
• No rate increase (unchanged)
• Early rate cut signals (September)
• Powell speaks gently, concerns about the slowing economy
→ Result: Risk-on cash flow returns → BTC, ETH rise sharply → ETH may exceed 2,600 and reach 2,700–2,800
❌ Scenario 2: Fed 'hawkish' (Hawkish) – possibility of DUMP
• Keep interest rates but hint at 'maintaining high for longer'
• Forecast only one rate cut in 2025
• Powell's speech warns of uncontrolled inflation
→ Result: Cash flow fleeing from risk assets → ETH drops back to the 2,450 area or lower
🔍 3. Current technical analysis of ETH (4H frame)
• Still accumulating → no clear direction yet.
• If there is good news → breakout very quickly
• If there is bad news → will test the bottom area of 2,430 – 2,450
🧭 Trading strategy tonight:
Method 1: Trade according to news (enter order after news release)
• Breakout up > 2,560 – 2,600, strong volume → Long according to the wave
• Breakdown < 2,430, high volume → Short according to the wave
Method 2: Place a spread order
• Buy limit: 2,450 – 2,470 (if good news)
• Sell limit: 2,580 – 2,600 (if bad news, reaction before breakout fail)
🎯 Conclusion
• A strong pump possibility may occur if the Fed is dovish
• However, the risk of a dump is also high if the Fed shows a tough stance
• Tip: Don't enter large orders before the news; if you do, set a tight SL, as volatility will be extremely strong in the 1–2 hours after the speech.
