In the early morning of the 19th, the Federal Reserve is about to make a big move on interest rates again. Recently, the market has been like a roller coaster, rising and then falling, leaving many people wondering: if there is no rate cut this time, will the market continue to drop?
First, let's discuss the larger trend—are we at the tail end of rate hikes or the beginning of a rate cut cycle? The Federal Reserve started raising rates in 2022, and in less than a year and a half, the rate has increased from 0.25% to 5.5%, with the first rate cut not expected until September 2024. So far, there have been three cuts, the most recent being last December, and the rate has been stuck at 4.5% for half a year.
Looking at the timeline, rates were raised for 18 months, while cuts have only occurred for 9 months, with just a 1% reduction—both the timing and the magnitude have not yet aligned. The Federal Reserve and Powell may talk hawkishly (saying to be cautious about rate cuts), but let's not forget that when they were raising rates in 2022, they were also talking dovishly (saying they wouldn’t raise too much), yet rates still went up continuously.
Therefore, the key is not to listen to what they say, but to observe the overall direction—since the rate cut cycle has already begun, it won’t suddenly stop halfway. This is more important than any short-term rhetoric.
As for whether there will be a rate cut in the early morning of the 19th? Based on the data, the probability seems low, but the market has already mentally prepared itself, having digested the expectation of 'not cutting for now' over the past two months. Even if rates remain unchanged tomorrow, the market is unlikely to crash.
Moreover, the overall direction is a rate cut cycle; if there is no cut this time, the probability of a cut next time is actually higher. So regardless of tomorrow's outcome, I believe there may be some short-term fluctuations, but I am optimistic about the next 1-2 months, leaning towards a generally favorable outlook.
Going solo and blindly floundering will never uncover opportunities. Follow me for updates, and I’ll help you discover tenfold potential coins! Holding top-tier primary market resources!
