At today's Lujiazui Financial Forum, Minsheng Securities predicted that several significant financial policies are about to be implemented. One key forecast has stirred the market: the trend of using stablecoins to replace traditional cross-border payments will continue to advance.
This judgment is based on a stark comparison: the current global stablecoin market cap is about 250 billion dollars, while the annual transaction volume of the cross-border payment market is nearing 200 trillion dollars. The 800-fold gap between the two reveals the vast penetration space of stablecoins in the cross-border field.
01 The 'Stone Age' of traditional cross-border payments
The current global cross-border payment system resembles the 'Tower of Babel' in the financial sector. Funds crossing borders must go through multiple checkpoints like agent banks, clearinghouses, and intermediary banks, akin to a highway with multiple toll stations.
This system has three major pain points: slow, expensive, and opaque.
An average cross-border remittance takes 2-3 business days to complete, with fees as high as 3%-5%. In contrast, transaction confirmations in a blockchain-supported stablecoin network are measured in minutes or even seconds, with fees being just a fraction of traditional methods.
Minsheng Securities pointed out in their latest report that stablecoins, based on distributed ledger technology, achieve direct peer-to-peer settlement, bypassing the traditional multi-tier agent banking system for cross-border payments. Relying on a 7×24 global blockchain network, stablecoins break through the limitations of bank working hours, especially catering to the high-frequency trading needs of emerging markets.
Essentially, stablecoins transform the 'centralized institutional trust' relied upon in cross-border payments into 'technologically verifiable trust', making the efficiency of fund flows approach the efficiency of information transmission.
02 Stablecoins: The financial bridge of the crypto world
Stablecoins are far from ordinary cryptocurrencies. As a 'cash equivalent' in the crypto ecosystem, they provide a value-stable trading medium by pegging to stable assets like the US dollar, offering stability in the volatile crypto world.
Minsheng Securities clearly categorized four types of stablecoin anchoring mechanisms in their in-depth report on June 9: fiat currency collateralized, commodity collateralized, cryptocurrency collateralized, and algorithmic. Among them, fiat currency collateralized stablecoins, due to their strongest stability, have become the main force in cross-border payments.
The core value of stablecoins lies in their threefold function: serving as a 'value benchmark' in the crypto world, allowing participants to clearly measure transaction values; acting as a hedging tool to meet the need for fund security; and significantly reducing payment costs while enhancing payment efficiency.
Data reveals the explosive trajectory of stablecoins: the average daily trading volume soared from 432 million dollars in 2019 to 84.14 billion dollars in 2024, with a five-year compound annual growth rate of 187.1%.
Growth will accelerate further in 2025, with the average daily trading volume in the first five months reaching 127.96 billion dollars, a 52% increase compared to 2024. This growth curve indicates that stablecoins are moving from a niche crypto circle to the mainstream financial stage.
03 Regulatory breakthrough, Hong Kong's 'value anchoring' experiment
Any financial innovation requires regulatory support. This year's introduction of the Hong Kong (Stablecoin Regulation) provides a crucial institutional framework for the industry.
The uniqueness of the Hong Kong model lies in its 'value anchoring' regulatory approach: led by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, it avoids regulatory arbitrage caused by cross-departmental overlaps. The regulations state that as long as all or part of the stablecoin is anchored in value and issued in Hong Kong, it must be subject to Hong Kong regulation.
Even if not issued in Hong Kong, the portion pegged to the Hong Kong dollar must still comply with Hong Kong regulatory rules. This design gives Hong Kong an advantage in the global stablecoin regulatory competition.
Regulatory breakthroughs are leading to market reconstruction. Minsheng Securities pointed out that the (stablecoin regulation) allows eligible non-bank institutions to participate in issuance, and the high barriers will push the market to concentrate on leading enterprises with financial and technical strength. Institutions like ZhongAn Online, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and Lianlian Digital are expected to be among the first beneficiaries.
04 The split and opportunities in a 200 trillion market
The scale of global cross-border payments is steadily expanding. The transaction volume in 2024 is expected to reach 194.6 trillion dollars and is projected to grow to 320 trillion dollars by 2032 at a compound annual growth rate of 6.4%.
In this vast blue ocean, the penetration of stablecoins has just begun. Minsheng Securities clearly suggested investors focus on two main lines in their computer industry report on June 17: the stablecoin industry chain and the cross-border payment industry chain.
Specific targets include:
Stablecoin technology providers: Zhongke Jincai, Jinzheng Co., Langxin Technology
Licensed operating institutions: ZhongAn Online, Lianlian Digital
Cross-border payment system providers: Sifang Jingchuang, Lakala, Newland
Broader ecological opportunities are emerging. As stablecoins become more prevalent in cross-border fields, supporting services such as digital wallets, compliant custody, and on-chain clearing and settlement will experience an explosion. Mergers and integrations between traditional financial institutions and crypto-native enterprises will also accelerate.
Financial historians will find that the current explosion of stablecoins resembles the rise of credit cards in the 20th century—from marginal experiments to mainstream acceptance. The 200 trillion dollar cross-border payment market is just the tip of the iceberg for global trade funding flows.
Hong Kong's regulatory sandbox, the on-chain representation of US Treasury reserves, and the daily trading torrent of 127.9 billion dollars are piecing together a panorama of new financial infrastructure. When the policy winds at the Lujiazui Forum meet the tidal wave of technological revolution, the walls of cross-border payments will inevitably be breached.
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