Breaking! The suspense of the Federal Reserve's dot plot is revealed, will there be 2 rate cuts or a bearish blow? What will happen to US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin?
Tomorrow morning the Federal Reserve's June meeting will begin, and this time it is highly likely that the Fed will not directly announce a rate cut, the real highlight will be the dot plot prediction.
If the dot plot retains the prediction of 2 rate cuts this year, that would be good news for the market. If it predicts less than 2 times, or even suggests that there is no possibility of a rate cut this year, that would be a significant negative.
Another outcome could be that the dot plot predicts 1 rate cut this year, but later when Powell speaks, he conveys a dovish signal to the market, which would be a neutral result, and the market reaction may be quite complex.
As for Powell's speech, I expect it will be the same as before; he will emphasize attention to inflation and unemployment, stating that he will adjust policies based on the situation, but whether it is dovish or hawkish will be left for the market to interpret, maintaining an ambiguous attitude.
Currently, the CME's interest rate bets are based on the expectation of 2 rate cuts within the year. If this expectation holds true, then the bulls in US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin will have a brief upward momentum.
Referring to the inflation, employment, and consumption data from April and May, especially the unemployment rate in May, which has reached 4.244%, not far from the 4.3% red line. Therefore, my expectation for rate cuts is still 2 times, in September and December, with a rate cut range of 75 - 100 BP. However, if the economy weakens more than expected, a rate cut in October is also a possibility.
Next, I will continue to layout my strategy; rather than blindly exploring and failing to capture the best entry and exit points leading to losses, it’s better to follow me, and those who agree can come directly.
