#FOMCMeeting Interest rates held steady at 4.25 %–4.50 %, marking a fourth consecutive hold amid continued caution around inflation and economic outlook .

The Fed emphasized a “wait‑and‑see” approach, closely watching the impact of Trump’s tariffs, Middle East tensions, and weaker retail sales before considering future rate moves .

Policymakers downgraded expectations for rate cuts in 2025, with market odds now favoring only one cut later this year instead of previous forecasts of two .

Attention focused on the dot‑plot projections and Powell’s press conference—markets scrutinizing language signaling openness to a July or September rate cut .

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🧾 Context & Importance

Inflation has moderated (CPI & PPI rise less than anticipated), and the labor market remains resilient, though some signs of softening (e.g., retail sales down 0.9%) are emerging .

Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have pushed up oil prices and complicated the Fed’s inflation outlook .

Political pressure from President Trump continues, yet the Fed maintains its independence, as Chair Powell resists calls for aggressive rate cuts .