Interest rate cut probability soars to 65% VS Mentougou nuclear bomb transfer! BTC faces a life-and-death battle tonight!!!
BTC has been oscillating in the 107,000-109,000 range, with three failed attempts to break above 111,980, and rapid rebounds after dips to 106,776, showing intense competition between bulls and bears.
Core signal insight
MACD momentum waning: The height of the red bars dropped from 120 to 60, indicating weak buying pressure above 109,000.
On-chain sudden movements: Mt. Gox cold wallet transferred 47,000 BTC this morning; although part of the compensation process, historical transactions have previously triggered a 15% drop.
Rising expectations for interest rate cuts: The U.S. core PCE year-on-year rate confirms inflation cooling at 2.6%, with the probability of a rate cut in September rising to 65%. The quick rebound at 107,200 this morning confirms liquidity support.
Survival Guide
Keep a close eye on today's risk events:
Progress on Bitbank Mentougou compensation in Japan
BlackRock IBIT fund flows
Contract extreme volatility warning: ATM IV reaches 85%, strictly adhere to the "breakout follow-up orders with stop-loss, do not catch falling knives in sideways markets" iron rule.
If 106,776 is broken, will you choose to stop-loss or buy the dip?
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