#美联储FOMC会议

The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates (probability over 99%), but signals a divergence in expectations for interest rate cuts within the year.

Economic fundamentals support a "wait and see" approach.

Inflation eases but does not meet targets: May's core CPI year-on-year at 2.8% is below expectations, slowing for the fourth consecutive month, but still above the 2% target.

Labor market resilience: Non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%, indicating that the labor market has not significantly deteriorated.

Economic contradictions: Uncertainties from trade policies and conflicts in the Middle East (such as the risk of rising oil prices) may suppress the speed of inflation decline.

The game of political pressure and market expectations.

Trump has repeatedly called for a 100 basis point rate cut and hinted at possible intervention in Federal Reserve personnel appointments, but Powell emphasized that decisions are "based on non-political analysis."

The market's betting probability for a rate cut in September has slightly decreased from 75% to 61%, reflecting a divergence in policy paths.