Everyone’s talking about rate cuts — but Wall Street doesn’t think they’re coming anytime soon, and here’s why 👇
📌 After analyzing economic reports, Fed statements, and tariff news, I found that:
✅ Inflation is cooling
✅ Consumer sentiment is up
✅ Unemployment is stable at 4.2%
Sounds perfect for a rate cut, right? But not so fast.
🚫 The Fed is on hold — and here’s what’s holding them back:
1️⃣ Uncertainty about H2 2025
Former Fed official Loretta Mester said: “Hard data looks good, but we don’t know how the second half of the year will go.”
2️⃣ Trump Tariffs = Inflation Risk
• 10% baseline tariffs still active
• China could face 55% tariffs
• Canada, Mexico, and autos are still under pressure
• Yale research says China’s effective tariff rate is ~33%
3️⃣ Fed Wants Clarity
Before cutting rates, the Fed wants to see how:
• Tariffs affect inflation
• Fiscal policies impact job growth
• Global trade stabilizes
🧠 My Take:
The Fed is walking a tightrope. Markets may want cuts, but policymakers don’t want to move too early. Volatility ahead is very likely.
📊 If you’re trading:
• Watch for macro news headlines
• Stay risk-managed
• Don’t over-leverage expecting an instant rate cut rally
