A state of caution and anticipation prevails in the markets ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 17 and 18, 2025, amid an economically charged environment with ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent inflationary pressures. The committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%–4.50%, continuing a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of recent actions, particularly the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which have contributed to rising costs of imported goods and increased price pressures.

Inflation remains below target, but is not slowing down sufficiently, while the labor market shows signs of deterioration through rising unemployment claims and a slowdown in hiring pace. These contradictions have prompted the Fed to exercise caution before deciding to cut rates, despite increasing market expectations that the first cut may occur in September or December, depending on upcoming economic data.

Markets are also closely monitoring the anticipated updates to the interest rate forecast map (dot plot), which may reveal a reduction in the number of expected cuts for this year. Meanwhile, the anticipated statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the press conference are the center of attention, as they are expected to outline the monetary policy for the upcoming phase, especially in light of ongoing tensions in the Middle East ...