#FOMCMeeting

The Federal Open Market Committee convened this week and held the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, aligning with widespread market expectations . Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a data-driven, wait-and-see approach—particularly given soft inflation readings (CPI & PPI) and persistent global uncertainties such as trade tensions and geopolitical risks .

A critical highlight was the release of updated “dot‑plot” projections, which indicated a slight shift: most Fed officials now project just one rate cut in 2025, down from earlier expectations of two . This recalibration reflects committee caution amid uneven economic signals—sticky inflation trends and a robust jobs market (unemployment around 4.2%) .

The policy statement also noted tariff-driven uncertainties and rising federal debt as factors curbing immediate rate cuts; the Fed remains wary of supply-side inflation pressures . Markets, as evidenced by bond futures, still anticipate the first cut by September, though some strategists suggest it may come as late as year-end or even early 2026 .

Bottom line: The Fed is firmly in a “steady‑as‑she‑goes” mode at this meeting—maintaining rates, signaling a slower path to easing, and prioritizing more data before any shift in policy. For investors and borrowers, this means continued rate stability through summer, with a mild easing breeze possibly drifting in by autumn, depending on economic developments in inflation, labor markets, trade, and fiscal conditions.