Editor's note:
As Bitcoin breaks $110,000 again, the market greed index continues to rise, especially as the enthusiasm for the altcoin season is reignited, yet the subsequent market fluctuations again shatter the illusion.
In contrast to the panic in the altcoin market, Bitcoin is once again fluctuating closer to $110,000, and Ethereum is starting to show a breakout trend. So, what super alpha opportunities lie ahead? Is meme still the super crypto track?
Joshua Deuk, trading director at Mozaik Capital, has reviewed the current market situation and future trends.
Here is the main text:
This weekend, with more time to reflect, I want to share some thoughts about the market.
I believe the overall directional trend of the cryptocurrency market will not become apparent until after September. Considering the macroeconomic headwinds, summer liquidity constraints, and quarter-end position adjustments, the real market dynamics will only begin when market participants return after the August holiday. From recent market activities, the rise of most altcoins has been driven by short squeezes. Traders are reacting reflexively to previous rebounds, chasing momentum—but this time there are no true long-term holders. Most have already been severely affected by the market. As expected, the vast majority of tokens that experienced sharp rises subsequently underwent equally sharp declines.
Ethereum unexpectedly rebounded, while the hardest-hit sectors like AI and meme coins led this rebound. On the other hand, tokens with real utility, strong fundamentals, or buyback mechanisms showed resilience—not only performing more robustly during the downturn but also recovering more quickly. Syrup, Hype, and AAVE are good examples. SPX, although a meme coin, has a completely different structure. From this, we can extract the following insights:
01
Bitcoin demand is real and persistent.
Traditional capital is gradually entering through ETFs and other regulated channels.
The nature of the capital supporting BTC now is completely different from previous cycles. This is why large-scale BTC liquidations are unlikely to occur unless triggered by macro events.
02
The differentiation within altcoins will intensify.
Ultimately, capital will flow back to altcoins—but it won't be comprehensive. Only those tokens with clear utility and real use cases are likely to attract these inflows. This is why I believe Ethereum will outperform Solana. Regulatory clarity, increasing decentralized finance usage, deflationary structures, and staking demand together create a strong flywheel effect. Moreover, due to ETH's long failure to meet expectations, there are still marginal buyers waiting off-market.
03
Venture capital-backed tokens carry structural risks.
Token unlocks will continue to exert pressure on price trends. In a liquidity-scarce environment, ongoing selling pressure from validators and early investors limits upside potential. This is why I believe that tokens with inflated valuations listed on centralized exchanges are not good choices for the future. Tokens in the Cosmos ecosystem especially face ongoing selling pressure due to their validator reward structure.
04
Meme has structural advantages.
In this case, meme has structural advantages, with no venture capital unlocks, fair launches, and 100% attention-based. This is a purely speculative mechanism—just like in the first cycle, it worked.
But I believe this phase is coming to an end.
The token generation event of Pump.fun and the launch of Trump coin marked the peak of attention for meme coins. Since then, interest in meme coins has begun to wane. Even during the April rebound, SOL's performance was underwhelming compared to ETH—if everyone already holds SOL, when the momentum of meme coins wanes, who will be the marginal buyer?
Some meme coins may still perform well, especially those that have gained popularity outside of crypto Twitter, such as those driven by charismatic figures like MURAD on TikTok or Instagram. These may still bring asymmetrical wealth effects. However, the era of 'cute dog and cat coins' as alpha is over. Only those meme coins with strong narratives and significant market recognition—things that people can collectively believe in—hold true speculative value.
Ironically, the fatigue and skepticism towards venture capital-backed tokens have opened doors for fair-launch Web2/3 projects, which will become the next wave of wealth generation opportunities.
Keeta is a great example. But to seize these opportunities, you need to be active on-chain. When information asymmetry exists, big opportunities always emerge. Once everyone knows something, it no longer offers returns.
This is why I spend more time closely monitoring the on-chain market. Keeta's success has ignited the desire to find the 'next Keeta', and capital has begun chasing similar fair-launch altcoin narratives. Just like that guy Bonk who made over 10 figures trading meme coins—attention drives capital.
05
Next market trend
So, if meme coins are no longer where the opportunity lies... what's next?
My view: The combination of AI and cryptocurrency.
If you've followed my timeline, you will know that most of my operations in this cycle—after the early phase of SOL and venture capital-backed tokens—have focused on meme coins and AI.
Just like DeFi summer, most early AI projects failed after the hype. But truly utility-based projects are quietly being built during this bear market.
We have already seen some of these projects appearing on-chain.As profits from meme coins dry up, attention will naturally shift to new narratives.
AI, with its clear utility, is well-suited to become the next destination.Many AI x Crypto projects are fair launches, echoing the narrative of Keeta.
This is why I spend quiet weeks researching and positioning myself early in this field. There’s no rush to build a full position now—but I believe that if the market sees another strong rally, this sector will harbor the greatest asymmetrical opportunities.
