#美联储FOMC会议 First, there is a clear trend in inflation data: only when the inflation data shows a sustained downward trend for 2-3 consecutive months can the market form a 99% consensus on interest rate cuts. As long as the inflation data does not show a clear surrender, market fluctuations will continue.

Next is the clear signal of a shift from the Federal Reserve: when the Federal Reserve Chairman gives a relatively clear timeline for interest rate cuts in speeches or in the dot plot. The upcoming FOMC meetings in the next few months (especially in September) are critical; given the market's current patience, if there is no rate cut in September, there is a high probability of a deeper correction, followed by continued fluctuations.

Finally, there is the employment market data: as long as it weakens, the Federal Reserve will have sufficient reason to cut rates immediately.