Here are the main points regarding the meeting #FOMCMeeting (June 17–18, 2025) where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made his decision:
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🏛️ Decision expectations:
• The council is expected to keep the current interest rate at 4.25%–4.50%, unchanged, based on broad economic consensus .
• Markets are leaning towards the possibility of price cuts in this meeting, with the first possible cut depending on September 2025.
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📈 Reasons for maintaining the price:
• Core inflation (CPI and PPI) has come in weaker than expected recently, and labor market participants remain stable (unemployment rate ~4.2%).
• There is ongoing concern about the impact of presidential tariff policies and fluctuations resulting from oil prices and geopolitical conflicts .
• Labor market data (in terms of employment and worker wages) indicate a slight slowdown, prompting some analysts to expect cuts later in the year.
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🗂️ What is expected to be announced:
• The economic summary and Dot Plot: Expectations for two cuts during the year are likely to be maintained, starting in September, with slight adjustments to growth, unemployment, and inflation forecasts for 2025–2026.
• The press release and Powell's touch: Emphasizing that the policy decision is based on data, not political desires, while acknowledging the risks of inflation and high unemployment; Powell will affirm the council's independence .
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📊 What does it mean for investors?
• Financial markets are heading towards a long-term diversified strategy, rather than relying on short-term waves.
• U.S. stocks closed higher with a slight decline in oil recently, awaiting the results of the Federal Reserve meeting.
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✅ Summary:
• No changes to interest rates currently.
• First potential cut: September 2025.
• The council will adopt a “wait and see” approach until the effects of trade policies and inflation expectations become clear.
• Communication mechanism: FOMC statement + press conference with Chairman Powell.